Showers and thunderstorms forecast to congeal along the coast of the southern United States next week and could slowly allow a storm to brew that may be tropical in nature.
While much of the Atlantic Basin is likely to remain hostile for tropical development due to large areas of dry air, dust and wind shear, there is a somewhat more likely area where development may take place in the coming days.
The southeastern part of the nation, including parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, will become an active zone for showers and thunderstorms into next week
Slightly cooler air aloft associated with a developing non-tropical storm, combined with warm and humid conditions, will spur on thundery downpours this weekend through next week.
However, during next week through next weekend, the storm aloft may slowly spin down to the surface.
"At this time, it appears the most likely area for slow development would be over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps near the coasts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"That development could be tropical or subtropical in nature," Kottlowski said.
A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.
Subtropical storms tend to be somewhat lopsided and may contain pockets of dry air near the center. However, in terms of impact, they can also bring heavy rainfall, rough sea and surf conditions and strong winds, just like their true tropical storm cousin.
Development may occur as early as the middle of next week or as late as next weekend. It is also possible that the system fails to develop should all the necessary ingredients not come together.
It is possible that the development zone extends northeastward off the Georgia and Carolina coast next week. This will be a swath where showers and thunderstorms extend over the Atlantic.
In any event, the area around the northeastern Gulf coast may be prone to several days of downpours from a slow-moving storm.
At some point, the more concentrated batch of downpours and thunderstorms associated with the feature, tropical or not, may be pulled inland over the South and then northeastward around an area of high pressure near Bermuda.
There is another area, located in a narrow zone immediately west of Africa, where there is a plume of moisture and slightly lower wind shear.
This area is the source of tropical waves or disturbances that move westward across Africa in the form of gusty winds and locally heavy thunderstorms.
These waves often result in the bulk of tropical storms and hurricane over the Atlantic Basin from August through September and October. This period is the heart of hurricane season with the peak in September.
Any such development through next week off Africa will have to fight against dry, dusty air to the immediate north.
While El Niño conditions may suppress the numbers of tropical storms and hurricane in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property.
This year, AccuWeather will implement its RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes to assist with public safety and understanding, as well as risk of damage should a tropical threat arise.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now
There are no organized tropical systems across the Atlantic Ocean, and AccuWeather meteorologists do not foresee tropical development through the weekend.
Much of the basin is being dominated by either high wind shear or large amounts of dry, dusty air. While there are several tropical waves traversing the Atlantic Ocean, the aforementioned factors will continue to inhibit any development through the end of the week.
There are projections showing a few stronger tropical waves emerging from the coast of Africa, one this weekend and a second early next week. These waves may have a higher chance of development than tropical waves we have seen during the past few weeks, but current modeling does not show significant strengthening with these. Wind shear is projected to lessen across the eastern Atlantic during this time, so the main limiting factor may be the dry and dusty air coming from the Sahara.
Later next week, an upper-level low pressure system over the southeastern United States may emerge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a couple of days. If this occurs, very warm water and relatively low wind shear in that region may allow a tropical or subtropical system to develop near the Eastern Gulf Coast. Accuweather meteorologists will be closely monitoring this potential over the next several days.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido
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