tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86835792281810001372024-03-18T21:59:36.800-07:00WeatherFactsChris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-50380885247335584452019-07-26T16:28:00.000-07:002019-07-26T19:30:52.555-07:00Paris Set Their All-Time Hottest Temperature This Week. Is it Climate Change? No.<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | July 26, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's summer, temperatures are hot - sometimes record hot </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">and as usual, climate alarmism reaches record highs, and climate activists have a field day with it by fear mongering rather than reasoning with facts and data. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Every week, various weather events end up getting caught in the spokes of the wheel of climate; i</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">t's an endless cycle. Rinse, wash, repeat. This time, it's the [second] European heatwave.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>A Bit of Historical Perspective</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium have recorded their hottest temperatures on record this week, Paris's record high of 108.7°F (42.6</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C) on Thursday, July 25 made international headlines and consequently sparked climate insanity.¹</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The graph below (Figure 1) shows the maximum temperature in Paris, France for each year since 1900.² As indicated by the red trendline, there <i>has </i>been a <i>noticeable </i>increase in the annual maximum temperature in Paris over the long run, however, the trend is <i>not </i>alarming.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Paris's previous hottest temperature record stood for nearly 72 years.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> On July 28, 1947, the city reached 104.7</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F (40.4</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C).³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Paris's high of 108.7</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F (42.6</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C) on Thursday broke the old record </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">by 4</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F (2.2</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C), which is an incredible feat by any stretch of the imagination. To break an all-time temperature record by 4</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F in summer, let alone tie it, is extremely difficult to do, even with global warming. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_sEAL0GnMQXQHAGHTlkGojEAy59_75ihWL5AY7nDX23cBkuVhbuFVU0SUupUCnQOdS3AntlvsFyZ_-nm8-VRqNJZWQH-WUITenl1DjJdQH65ve4HXykkeNc4HGxN2D_dK4x1n5-IflNWV/s1600/a08bc8b3-c7f0-479e-b85f-407cc09e3427.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_sEAL0GnMQXQHAGHTlkGojEAy59_75ihWL5AY7nDX23cBkuVhbuFVU0SUupUCnQOdS3AntlvsFyZ_-nm8-VRqNJZWQH-WUITenl1DjJdQH65ve4HXykkeNc4HGxN2D_dK4x1n5-IflNWV/s1600/a08bc8b3-c7f0-479e-b85f-407cc09e3427.png" style="cursor: move;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. Paris, France annual maximum temperature since 1900.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The 1947 heatwave was an incredible one in Europe and it's forever stitched in the memories of elders. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In Paris, the heatwave lasted for 12 days (July 22 through August 2) with highs consistently at or above 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F (32.2</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Two days were at or above 100</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F (37.8</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C), and four were at or above 95</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F (35</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°C).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What really stuck out to me when comparing maximum temperatures this summer with 1947 is that maximum temperatures seem to trace those of 1947 (Figure 2). It's quite interesting and odd.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8UrI1rec0HHcgdJLs0-CQbVuN2Yz1cFFX4W-lJCeu_OwsPGRyEHkDUQebBfDFr46HjzNf56slZ6Mbz7mqHxxN0dR_GhfJ7JOe-2dGUHa5JQkZZdbcIuNS-fMJxf5MiH6dH0JI2HXrQcSx/s1600/d9dab545-15f5-4087-9f5f-8602e15ed895.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="406" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8UrI1rec0HHcgdJLs0-CQbVuN2Yz1cFFX4W-lJCeu_OwsPGRyEHkDUQebBfDFr46HjzNf56slZ6Mbz7mqHxxN0dR_GhfJ7JOe-2dGUHa5JQkZZdbcIuNS-fMJxf5MiH6dH0JI2HXrQcSx/s1600/d9dab545-15f5-4087-9f5f-8602e15ed895.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. Paris, France daily maximum temperature for the summer of 1947 and 2019.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Is Climate Change to Blame?</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Like most scientists, I agree that climate change </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- both natural fluctuations or man-made forcings like land use and urbanization </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- should cause weather patterns and the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather or weather-related events to change. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's indeed possible that the warmer atmosphere today as compared to the 1980s may have made this heatwave <i>slightly </i>more intense. However, nobody knows for sure because heatwaves have always occurred; some are just worse than others. It's summer.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While this heatwave is the latest poster child for the "ecological breakdown," there is a natural explanation for this heatwave, as with all other weather events.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There's been a persistent weather pattern that's causing this bake fest. A large area of high pressure is stationed over Europe and an area of low pressure is situated off of the coast of Ireland.⁴ The wind flow around the pressure centers are drawing in air from the south, which is blowing hot, Saharan air into Europe (Figure 3).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> This natural process occurs </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">with </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">or </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">without </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">415 parts per million (ppm) of </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZSZFhR2ImUQtcAtwmcjm-osEh_RyXEqYjXKJHv8e_LcpRJMnM-DcPYDPVJX_pb0K8tzxAJ8vQV-eO6jNlKOwF03VcG2UdazwaYR7u-x-yBHzSpejv5aFvNSRun_FRAhap_S2W63BraHVi/s1600/MetOfficeMap.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="997" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZSZFhR2ImUQtcAtwmcjm-osEh_RyXEqYjXKJHv8e_LcpRJMnM-DcPYDPVJX_pb0K8tzxAJ8vQV-eO6jNlKOwF03VcG2UdazwaYR7u-x-yBHzSpejv5aFvNSRun_FRAhap_S2W63BraHVi/s400/MetOfficeMap.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. European surface map. - Met Office.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The air over France at the time of Paris's record high was relatively dry (Figure 4), and as all weather hobbyists or meteorologists should know, dry air heats up faster than saturated air. Had the dew points (and thus relative humidity) been higher Thursday afternoon, the record high may <i>not </i>have been set!</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFGwNhLi3gmnz5lfDkl371Bf1ZkpzUe9OHyMhIdsKXiobunNevLLp7JtXk7cevYbbITgIOsXC8MVayJ6t65fkO4clTbwQqmzqvkmiEHtbFY7hOaxlcT1WOh0TMQsvJXj3pBU2LfgHR7e06/s1600/arome_rh2m_france_15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFGwNhLi3gmnz5lfDkl371Bf1ZkpzUe9OHyMhIdsKXiobunNevLLp7JtXk7cevYbbITgIOsXC8MVayJ6t65fkO4clTbwQqmzqvkmiEHtbFY7hOaxlcT1WOh0TMQsvJXj3pBU2LfgHR7e06/s640/arome_rh2m_france_15.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. 2-meter relative humidity in France. - weathermodels.com.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's also worth pointing out that Paris, like any other large city, is a massive urban heat island (UHI). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">When land is developed, urban infrastructure takes place of land that was once covered with vegetation like grass and particularly forests.⁵ Development limits the amount of plant transpiration (evaporation that cools plant leaves and air temperatures).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵ Buildings like factories, skyscrapers, houses, and shops, not to mention automobiles and dark urban infrastructure like roads and black roofs absorb and retain more heat than grassy surfaces or forested areas.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">All of the heat generated by these objects and surfaces make its way into the atmosphere above the city adding supplemental heat that's not natural.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've seen some Tweets from a few meteorologists and other people who claim that the UHI is only <i>or </i>mostly effective at night. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While there is <i>some </i>truth to that (as most of the warming seen in the U.S., for instance, is with overnight temperatur</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">es), </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/citizen-scientists-take-streets-map-hottest-places-ten-us-cities">NOAA</a> </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">has created maps from various U.S. cities of both high and low temperatures.⁶</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> The map below (Figure 5) is of Baltimore, Maryland's 3:00 p.m. afternoon temperature on August 29, 2018.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁶</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Notice how the city is noticeably warmer than its more rural surroundings, even in the afternoon! I know this from personal experience because I live in Northern Virginia, not too far from Baltimore and Washington, D.C. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzrud2eyQ6OwBcgisPT4muv1d6q8CUuN1LESxAC8Yug-IMPm8eUcgkZVj46Y-WFPDZ_gIuqaK7nRKHbaO1MKsHUCOqLE9GIeh-dAvqiZ3mb6uLAy4YpPFpKCHLNHCKBs_yRIZqQpwGqeCC/s1600/EAQ-kodWkAAHoY9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="813" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzrud2eyQ6OwBcgisPT4muv1d6q8CUuN1LESxAC8Yug-IMPm8eUcgkZVj46Y-WFPDZ_gIuqaK7nRKHbaO1MKsHUCOqLE9GIeh-dAvqiZ3mb6uLAy4YpPFpKCHLNHCKBs_yRIZqQpwGqeCC/s640/EAQ-kodWkAAHoY9.jpg" width="577" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. Baltimore, MD UHI effect.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>My Conclusion</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While it's incredible that Paris exceeded their record high on Thursday, it's important that we look not only at trends, but also give a bit of perspective. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One can not make a preconceived notion on one daily temperature measurement. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">You have to first look at whether or not a record temperature occurred in an urban area, then see what the upper air pattern is doing, and lastly look at trends and previous years with similar atmospheric conditions.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Skeptics who use cold and snow as evidence that global warming is a hoax are always reminded by climate activists that weather and climate are vastly different, and they'd be correct. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, why then do activists blame a single record high temperature, let alone a summer heatwave on climate change? That I can not answer. It seems to me that it's "do as I say, not as I do."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />The bottom line is this: heatwaves happen, it's summer, and it's hot.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Leister, Eric. "Paris breaks all-time high temperature as deadly heat wave grips Europe." <i>AccuWeather</i>. July 25, 2019. Accessed July 26, 2</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">019. <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/scorching-heat-produces-all-time-record-highs-in-belgium-netherlands-as-western-europe-swelters-under-heat-wave/70008886">https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/scorching-heat-produces-all-time-record-highs-in-belgium-netherlands-as-western-europe-swelters-under-heat-wave/70008886</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] "Annual Maximum of Monthly Maximum of Daily Maximum Temperature." <i>KNMI Climate Explorer</i>. Accessed July 26, 2019. <a href="http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnFR000007150_max12_anom_max1_anom.dat">http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnFR000007150_max12_anom_max1_anom.dat</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] "Maximum Temperature PARIS/LE BOURGET." <i>KNMI Climate Explorer</i>. Accessed July 26, 2019. <a href="http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnFR000007150.dat">http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnFR000007150.dat</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] "Surface pressure charts." <i>Met Office</i>. July 26, 2019. Accessed July 26, 2019. <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[5] "Satellites Pinpoint Drivers of Urban Heat Islands in the Northeast." <i>NASA</i>. Accessed July 26, 2019. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/heat-island-sprawl.html">https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/heat-island-sprawl.html</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[6] Herring, David. "Citizen Scientists take to the streets to map the hottest places in ten U.S. cities." <i>NOAA Climate.gov</i>. July 24, 2019. Accessed July 26, 2019. <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/citizen-scientists-take-streets-map-hottest-places-ten-us-cities">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/citizen-scientists-take-streets-map-hottest-places-ten-us-cities</a>.</span>Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-38400483474601717592019-07-20T18:43:00.001-07:002019-07-20T18:43:18.909-07:00Heat Wave Hysteria? The Truth Shall Set You Free<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | July 20, 2019</span><br />
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We've made it to mid-July and we are <i>just now</i> having our first major heat wave of the season here in the United States. </span><div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A massive ridge of high pressure has built in over the southeast, which is dominating weather conditions almost everywhere east of the Rockies (Figure 1).¹</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 1. <i>NOAA NWS </i>surface analysis for July 19, 2019.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">National Weather Service </i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">has issued Heat </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Advisories</i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, Excessive Heat </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Watches</i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, and Excessive Heat </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Warnings</i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, from Nebraska to New Jersey as temperatures soar well into the 90s (scattered 100s are possible too) through Sunday (Figure 2).</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 2. Weather alerts for Friday, July 19.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When high pressure systems like this move over an area, air is pulled down towards the surface whereby it's compressed, increasing the temperature.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">²</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The longer the "heat dome" remains over an area, the temperature generally becomes hotter with each passing day until the high either moves away or weakens.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">²</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> This is because there is little mixing of air which would otherwise prevent heat accumulation at the surface. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The large amount of sinking motion prevents low pressure systems from moving into areas dominated by high pressure while also inhibiting convection and cloud development in much of the area dominated by high pressure.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">²</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> As a result, the ground becomes dry due to a lack of precipitation, which can enhance the temperature. The air can also become dry, unless water vapor is trapped underneath the "heat dome," like it is currently. This excess water vapor in and of itself causes other issues like the heat index to soar well into the 100s.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Due to a lack of clouds, the sunlight can feel penalizing.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">² This buildup of heat at the surface is known as a "heat wave," and they generally last anywhere from three to seven days, although some last longer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Heat waves like this are <i>typical </i>of summer and from personal forecasting experience, they generally occur two to three times per year. This natural process used to be called "weather," but in 2019, like everything that goes wrong, it's climate change.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike more recent weather or weather-related events, heat waves are actually <i>not </i>new to being blamed on global warming. However, the amount of heat wave hysteria among the public has increased significantly in recent years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is in this writing that I have three simple and valid points that destroy the hype on heat waves, like the current one.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Reason #1: Equal, But Opposite</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While everyone is fixated on the heat wave, they ignore the unusual cold that's nearby (Figure 3). As all weather forecasters should know, "for every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction." In other words, for every place that there's warm anomalies, there are places with cool anomalies; it's nature's balancing act.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 3. GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies for the U.S. on Friday July 19, 2019. - weathermodels.com.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Climate activists seem to ignore the fact that nature tries to find a balance. If they took note of equilibrium, they wouldn't be fretting over this heat wave, simply because there's reasonably cool temperatures relative to average out west to balance it all out in the total picture. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another thing that really annoys me with these people is that they get anxious because the weather is not "normal," and by normal they mean climatologically "normal." </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Most people, even those who aren't fascinated by the weather like me, understand that "normal" weather rarely happens. It's usually one extreme or the other; hot or cold, warm or cool. These extremes for a single location for a single day end up averaging out numerically for a daily average over the course of 30 years. It's highly unlikely that a daily temperature average of the high and low are going to stack up near the 30-year normal. It just doesn't happen.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 3 above shows the 2-meter temperature anomalies for Friday, July 19. Figure 4 below shows the same thing, but I adjusted the contrast of the image in order to separate the most extreme color differences, or in this case, the temperatures based on the color key to the right. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's time for a vision test. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It looks like to me that there's pretty much an equal balance between extreme heat and extreme cold relative to average on the map (warmth dominates slightly with positive anomalies east of Hudson Bay), so nobody can reasonably make the argument that the warmth outweighs the cold.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 4. GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies for the U.S. on Friday, July 19, 2019 (contrast adjusted). - weathermodels.com.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Reason #2: Some Historical Perspective</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Most people are just too lazy to do a little bit of research. It's a simple cold, hard fact. And for this, they believe everything they hear from journalists and politicians, both of which aren't trained as scientists. This is quite dumbfounding considering we have the internet right at our fingertips.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to the <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/">Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment</a>, the average duration of warm spells (heat waves) has declined from around eleven days during the 1930s to 6.5 days during the 2000s (Figure 5).</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">³</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> In other words, the average duration of heat waves have declined by nearly 41% since the 1930s.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOjqGU6Kk1TkrYzKImTlfc-9bew8venP0KkDTxJpNpV33xQ3wRFUFrh0-WEBPSiYi2aGNAZ4kcWw5CA0nnwSXWxrZ0S-qFBu1pEbET4XziK7RpQF2wZ6sSSUn9FPOOBmCdM9IAOCXAxwTz/s1600/Warm+Spells.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="1099" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOjqGU6Kk1TkrYzKImTlfc-9bew8venP0KkDTxJpNpV33xQ3wRFUFrh0-WEBPSiYi2aGNAZ4kcWw5CA0nnwSXWxrZ0S-qFBu1pEbET4XziK7RpQF2wZ6sSSUn9FPOOBmCdM9IAOCXAxwTz/s640/Warm+Spells.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 5. Warm spell duration. - U.S. Fourth National Climate <span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Assessment</span>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In addition, the average maximum temperature during any given heat wave has also declined in the U.S. from 101°F in the 1930s to 99</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">°F since the 1980s (Figure 6)</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">³</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNFZuxHLFoJWvsf5c0QiAXNJhhJLd-5ubT8Ojt3pOITInddEtGhaL37TkLiIifKHvNAVnoJAobSn2wCCZSly8Kvi32Nez9IljMep6Sg3wvnZmtgupsIYLLw1X2ZE1_pI5SzjHmVL9KGSaP/s1600/Warmest+Temperature.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="280" data-original-width="436" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNFZuxHLFoJWvsf5c0QiAXNJhhJLd-5ubT8Ojt3pOITInddEtGhaL37TkLiIifKHvNAVnoJAobSn2wCCZSly8Kvi32Nez9IljMep6Sg3wvnZmtgupsIYLLw1X2ZE1_pI5SzjHmVL9KGSaP/s640/Warmest+Temperature.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 6. Average warmest temperature each year. - U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The 1930s remains the warmest decade in U.S. history. It also had some of the hottest summers that the country has ever seen since records began.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The map below (Figure 7) shows the decade in which each U.S. state (also includes Guam, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Washington, D.C.) <i>initially</i> set their current hottest temperature in the record books, and as you can see, there's an overwhelming number that are colored dark red (almost brown), which indicate the 1930s.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">⁴</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 7. Decade in which each U.S. state and territory initially recorded its hottest temperature.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In fact, 19 (38%) of the 50 U.S. states (I realize Alaska and Hawaii weren't states until 1959) initially recorded their (current standing) hottest temperatures in the 1930s. 22 states (44%) either set<i> or tied </i>their hottest temperatures in the 1930s (Figure 8).</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyHmlwPqMGWIexVO6Q9O8l1GowOhyLPOITdfen4Ecw3KIMtSpEhzkquoscfT5-FgeQrw2NnBpGGgiEgqZi6WP6Er9uAMZG9ZtNCWI2gMMCHTtXRNAvcDuGHw2OQXfQPlCvbgcDhe8Nliw9/s1600/Each+U.S.+State+That+Set+or+Tied+Their+Hottest+Temperature+in+the+1930s.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="883" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyHmlwPqMGWIexVO6Q9O8l1GowOhyLPOITdfen4Ecw3KIMtSpEhzkquoscfT5-FgeQrw2NnBpGGgiEgqZi6WP6Er9uAMZG9ZtNCWI2gMMCHTtXRNAvcDuGHw2OQXfQPlCvbgcDhe8Nliw9/s640/Each+U.S.+State+That+Set+or+Tied+Their+Hottest+Temperature+in+the+1930s.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 8. Each U.S. state that set or tied its hottest temperature in the 1930s.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If we had heat like that of the 1930s (click <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oXYNsEm-_GCfc3SY83qaYuuRjIQ3H5vZuMcO3rDqErU/edit?usp=sharing">this link</a> to see U.S. heat extremes), people would be screaming "climate doomsday" at ten times the levels they are currently!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Reason #3: Weather ≠ Climate</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With most climate activists - especially those who are <i>not </i>trained or degreed scientists </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">-</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> it's "do as I say, not as I do." </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">They get triggered if a skeptic uses a record low temperature or record snowfall as proof that global warming is a hoax, and claim "weather and climate are not the same," <i>or </i>that "climate is global, weather is not," then turn around and use a single localized heat wave as evidence of a "climate catastrophe." </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>In conclusion...</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Using </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">single weather events as evidence that global warming is either a hoax or is a crisis is completely dishonest and two-faced. I have seen too many <i>certain</i> people do it for both reasons, and its usually to try to pass legislation. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">n other words, this entire movement has become a political thing and not one about science. It's clear as day, and if you can't see that, then you're on your own. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the end, the truth shall set you free.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">[1] "Current Surface Maps." <i>National Weather Service</i>. July 19, 2019. Accessed July 19, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps">https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">[2] McLeod, Jamie. "What Causes a Heat Wave?" <i>Farmers Almanac</i>. Accessed July 19, 2019.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="https://www.farmersalmanac.com/what-causes-a-heat-wave-10912">https://www.farmersalmanac.com/what-causes-a-heat-wave-10912</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">[3] "Chapter 6: Temperature Changes in the United States." <i>CSSR</i>. 2017. Accessed July 19, 2019. <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/">https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">[4] "U.S. state temperature extremes." <i>Wikipedia</i>. July 18, 2019. Accessed July 19, 2019. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes</a>.</span></div>
Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-33703555018608257612019-07-20T17:52:00.003-07:002019-09-10T17:19:24.479-07:00Development likely within the next few days in the East Pacific<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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While there are currently no tropical systems across the Eastern Pacific, development is likely within the next few days.</div>
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A cluster of thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and a disorganized low pressure area is currently centered several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This disturbance will be moving into an area of low wind shear and warm waters, which is conducive for further organization and development. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next few days. This system will continue to track off to the northwest and not threaten any important landmasses.</div>
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In the Central Pacific, we are watching a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms centered well to the south of Hawaii. This area of disturbed weather is currently around 600 miles south of the Big Island. There is a small chance this area could develop and organize further over the next several days.</div>
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By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty and updated by Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski</div>
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<a class="timage" data-src="https://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/epacific_nhc_activity.gif" data-title="NHC E. Pacific Activity" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="NHC E. Pacific Activity" height="249" src="https://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/epacific_nhc_activity.gif" width="400" /></a><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_0d0.png?202353" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="262" id="twofig0d" name="twofig0d" src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_cpac_0d0.png?202353" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" usemap="#twomap0d0" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />Ricky Chenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11334635895280298773noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-41084256115854592432019-07-16T18:45:00.000-07:002019-07-17T04:39:16.449-07:00East Coast Braces for Typical Summer Heat Wave<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | July 16, 2019</span><br />
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<a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Well, it's that time of year again, which means that it's only a matter of time before a heat wave grips a part of the country. Unfortunately, the hour class has run out and one is knocking on the doorstep.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As you can see in the map below (Figure 1), a ridge of high pressure is building in over the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast this week and will strengthen as we progress into the weekend.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5NOVufkRdC7oYmihfgBF__t2Q2ef8mzLDss9rYoHwllf03YhRIVlTAIX-jKQ4VUUDWktbFad8-2fMGP6J_WVf28hwzclDo3BnSMgI1vQCzfct_Z_0lVMdGqVKguOO6QnP9u90HbBX0fra/s1600/download+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5NOVufkRdC7oYmihfgBF__t2Q2ef8mzLDss9rYoHwllf03YhRIVlTAIX-jKQ4VUUDWktbFad8-2fMGP6J_WVf28hwzclDo3BnSMgI1vQCzfct_Z_0lVMdGqVKguOO6QnP9u90HbBX0fra/s640/download+%25281%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. GFS model - weathermodels.com.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While the heat wave will get progressively worse throughout the course of the week as the heat dome strengthens its grip, the weekend looks to be a "bake fest" (Figures 2 and 3). Highs across the lower Plains and up and down the eastern seaboard will be closing in on the 100° mark Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifaeD6AOuRsLoGUJumrqoOQXC-PYQvxnw2kzp3NKO4naqd4bDqAzUHDjeE9-sSxZDiJEGJG-FikFb784mSkMJtZuGhTJNuGwcLkTuc7tVlCNniVHJ8d706jRjdaPyaIWtat_JaQZbBC9BP/s1600/ndfd_t2m_hi_conus_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifaeD6AOuRsLoGUJumrqoOQXC-PYQvxnw2kzp3NKO4naqd4bDqAzUHDjeE9-sSxZDiJEGJG-FikFb784mSkMJtZuGhTJNuGwcLkTuc7tVlCNniVHJ8d706jRjdaPyaIWtat_JaQZbBC9BP/s640/ndfd_t2m_hi_conus_4.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. NWS forecast high temperatures, Saturday - weathermodels.com.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHFaIBjDyZ3Sr9NmfmuCWGuECzOzXekzy29zV3uPiiQV2-Q14HpW4RHeHQX-0i7Pl_QP0dNDmYXvqLrgCcnTFEQrQfcWvsX-8Df6cG6_99f_kx9K7USM87zPa6FQqVx9ryBk5fxO5Yez52/s1600/ndfd_t2m_hi_conus_5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHFaIBjDyZ3Sr9NmfmuCWGuECzOzXekzy29zV3uPiiQV2-Q14HpW4RHeHQX-0i7Pl_QP0dNDmYXvqLrgCcnTFEQrQfcWvsX-8Df6cG6_99f_kx9K7USM87zPa6FQqVx9ryBk5fxO5Yez52/s640/ndfd_t2m_hi_conus_5.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. NWS forecast high temperatures, Sunday - weathermodels.com</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While I don't think many places will tie or break daily or monthly, records are certainly not out of the question. Some models, like the GFS and European, have been astonishingly aggressive with forecast highs, but I think there's more to be desired. I believe the models are overdoing the heat, but we shall see where the chips fall in the forthcoming days.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Relief will be on the order for next week, as an upper level trough ushers in some cooler air for the east coast.</span>Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-6262565161539144982019-07-14T21:20:00.001-07:002019-07-15T05:01:59.228-07:00Is Climate Change to Blame for Hurricane Barry?<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | July 15, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As a future meteorologist, the weather is something I truly enjoy. If you ask any meteorologist that I have met, or if you ask anyone who personally knows me, they'd tell you the same thing. I always think of the weather as being the current prevailing and/or forecasted atmospheric conditions that may be good or bad depending upon my preference.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Here lately, <strike>it seems like</strike> politicians have either been confusing weather and climate, or they are just weaponizing the weather to carry out their political agendas, and unfortunately, I think the latter is more likely to be the case.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Every week, various weather events are being used as evidence of the "climate crisis." In fact, over the last two weeks alone, four specific weather events have been used as evidence of our impending doom and gloom; the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/02/climate-change-european-heatwave-likelier">European heat wave</a>, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/americas/guadalajara-mexico-hail-storm-wxc-trnd/index.html">Guadalajara hailstorm</a>, the <a href="https://dcist.com/story/19/07/11/d-c-is-already-susceptible-to-flooding-climate-change-is-making-it-worse/">flooding in D.C.</a>, and most recently, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/13/741324506/climate-change-fuels-wetter-storms-storms-like-barry">Hurricane Barry</a>, which made landfall in Louisiana on Saturday, July 13 (Figure 1).</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_K2-HlI1xyiFL0paV1zgGu4JSwx9bhyoOjw61YPy_SLIG0Y3KCX2Dp-5i4TK479lzhqfbe_0LQkryuWONzX_povXweqC_SyDhyphenhyphenOg8pgYlMxBYpBCZnvfKGDbqkKWfdc5k4IVavWczTySO/s1600/2019+July.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="801" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_K2-HlI1xyiFL0paV1zgGu4JSwx9bhyoOjw61YPy_SLIG0Y3KCX2Dp-5i4TK479lzhqfbe_0LQkryuWONzX_povXweqC_SyDhyphenhyphenOg8pgYlMxBYpBCZnvfKGDbqkKWfdc5k4IVavWczTySO/s400/2019+July.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. July 2019 climate crisis events.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I have already written articles explaining why the </span><a href="https://awesomeweatherfacts.blogspot.com/2019/07/hailstorm-causes-climate-hysteria.html" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Mexico hailstorm</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> and </span><a href="https://awesomeweatherfacts.blogspot.com/2019/07/somethings-rotten-in-dc-and-it-isnt.html" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">flooding in D.C.</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> are </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">not </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">signs of the so called "ecological breakdown" (I avoided writing one for the European heat wave due to a lack of time, information, and confusion on whether or not the record was official at the time). This article is focused on Hurricane Barry, which made landfall this past Saturday in Louisiana as a weak Category 1 hurricane.</span></div>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Barry?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Barry</a> made landfall as a hurricane early this afternoon near Intracoastal City, LA. Although the center is now over land, the rainfall threat is just beginning for many locations. Continue to follow updates at <a href="https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb">https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb</a> and <a href="https://t.co/SiZo8ozBbn">https://t.co/SiZo8ozBbn</a> <a href="https://t.co/2IFyKGpHtb">pic.twitter.com/2IFyKGpHtb</a></div>
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1150103305894408194?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2019</a></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As usual, people who have their facts backwards are using Barry as the latest "poster child" for climate change. Because people these days believe everything they hear or see on social media without taking five minutes to fact-check, they are succumbed into this dangerous way of thinking, that's politically motivated. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Because <i>some </i>mainstream journalists (<i>not</i> all of them, there are good journalists out there) and many politicians are bombarding the public with hysterical nonsense about the weather day in and day out, people have been having <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/07/08/climate-scientists-pre-traumatic-stress-syndrome/">anxiety</a> and panic attacks because of even the most ordinary weather events, thinking that they are signs of human-induced climate change, when in fact they are <i>not</i>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Whenever one extreme event is over with, the "climate crisis" moves somewhere else as the narrative shifts. It's not stationary.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've created two interactive graphs which are shown below. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The first graph shows the number of landfalling hurricanes in Louisiana by year since 1851.</span><br />
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<b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">(Both graphs are interactive. You can hover your mouse over the blue columns to see the year and the number of landfalling hurricanes corresponding to the year.)</b><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="402" scrolling="no" seamless="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTVOIqFKmpEgkUQC64vJ6WS_NTzBXnFTw5csfFAWqseyyRQz9mjTiaghKc_q5ThDcHhmpaCoena2mwL/pubchart?oid=236102316&format=interactive" width="603"></iframe>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As you can see by the graph above, there has been literally <i>no trend </i>in the number of hurricanes making landfall in Louisiana since record keeping began for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean) in 1851. The most hurricanes to make landfall in Louisiana within a single season were three strikes, set in both 1860 and 1985.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The next interactive graph (below) shows the number of Louisiana hurricanes by <i>decade </i>since the 1850s.</span><br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="402" scrolling="no" seamless="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTVOIqFKmpEgkUQC64vJ6WS_NTzBXnFTw5csfFAWqseyyRQz9mjTiaghKc_q5ThDcHhmpaCoena2mwL/pubchart?oid=652441478&format=interactive" width="603"></iframe><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As you can see by the red trendline in the graph above, there has been an insignificant decease in the number of landfalling hurricanes <i>per decade</i> in Louisiana.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>(You can access the data yourself on the <i>National Hurricane Center</i> <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/">data archive</a>.)</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Dozens of news articles such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/climate/hurricane-tropical-storms.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes">this one</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/13/741324506/climate-change-fuels-wetter-storms-storms-like-barry?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter">this one</a> have surfaced, not to mention politicians, claiming that hurricanes, Barry included </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">and last year, Florence </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">-</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> are going to occur more frequently and cause more flooding in the future as the planet warms. Some articles were written prior to the storm being named by the <i>National Hurricane Center</i>, and others were written pre-maturely, i.e. before landfall.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Their scientific explanation roots itself in the very fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, in addition to the fact that the amount of available moisture in the air increases as sea surface temperatures rise. Furthermore, climate activists make the case that hurricanes are starting to move more slowly as a result of a lessened temperature gradient between the poles and tropics (polar amplification) which slow the winds that move tropical cyclones, and as a result, dump out more rain on any given area impacted by a landfall.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹</span><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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I’m praying for New Orleans and its resilient people as they brace for major flooding from Tropical Storm <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Barry?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Barry</a>. Climate change is an existential threat—and we must take action now.</div>
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) <a href="https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1149739366488662016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 12, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The problem with attributing [at the very least Gulf of Mexico] hurricanes on climate change is that the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf have seen very little change since 1900. A little outdated I know, but recent sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are actually a little bit cooler than they were during the 1930s and 1940s (Figure 2).² </span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiecwT5ewHgxs_nhZGX5iU9zqyacyAOVoERWEFHZclmQnKOw6uG4WBnhjQnzCPdReErJBExfD1ZSaUVDnt0pBABBzpEvhC_CrXtQ47QBTy8pVvrIbClDtD-YvKziG9vgBgQoMEBuKksLZvS/s1600/GOMSST.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="644" height="417" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiecwT5ewHgxs_nhZGX5iU9zqyacyAOVoERWEFHZclmQnKOw6uG4WBnhjQnzCPdReErJBExfD1ZSaUVDnt0pBABBzpEvhC_CrXtQ47QBTy8pVvrIbClDtD-YvKziG9vgBgQoMEBuKksLZvS/s640/GOMSST.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. Monthly Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomalies from HADSST2 from 1900 to 2011. - Bob Tisdale.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But here's what they don't tell you. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Tropical cyclones require many more ingredients to develop than warm sea surface temperatures </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">preferably at or over 80°F. The Gulf of Mexico's sea surface temperatures are plenty warm enough every year to produce hurricanes of any size and/or intensity. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Most tropical cyclones can be traced back to tropical waves or cyclonic circulations that originally formed off of the coast of Africa - or elsewhere. Such disturbances are pre-existing conditions and may intensify into an organized circulation that is sustained by warm sea surface temperatures. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If tropical storm systems, like hurricanes or tropical storms run into wind shear, the storm will fall apart as it becomes tilted vertically, which consequently draws in dry air, suppressing convection.³</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wind shear is generally higher in the Atlantic basin during El Niño events, when there's warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ During La Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ña events, wind shear in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf tends to be lower. Both 2005 and 2017 were La Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ña years (Figure 3),</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> and were very hyperactive seasons in the Atlantic.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴ </span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYuOAPkePybZ1OCX4H1W1m_Q2kgYZVL5IQ53AJ_1aavmfq6PmqnlB9e6Ysof1sISqRAoKFY7YwMSGypfyM9NLDU5XBBvTrW1CfmvhlsIQrwmhpE8WTy1O4okoE6GrMV1iEfOhOWrygRQZr/s1600/La+Nina+years.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="380" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYuOAPkePybZ1OCX4H1W1m_Q2kgYZVL5IQ53AJ_1aavmfq6PmqnlB9e6Ysof1sISqRAoKFY7YwMSGypfyM9NLDU5XBBvTrW1CfmvhlsIQrwmhpE8WTy1O4okoE6GrMV1iEfOhOWrygRQZr/s320/La+Nina+years.PNG" width="296" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. La Nina years.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">With El Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ño fading currently (Figure 4),⁵ I'm actually a bit concerned that we might see an uptick in tropical development in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico in the coming weeks and months.</span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy29c7Ug62t4N3ZzoU35tGFORdZO25i3IhkistYiLf0qqpmpClmEmLYb2LVlWaVLf3OvnV2QFa82eq3nOjf3EYOczOvdpis4hsr82VpShJD-EQEMxcCz6GhXyaIe0-fKU5vPWxP-S98zeB/s1600/nino34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="768" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy29c7Ug62t4N3ZzoU35tGFORdZO25i3IhkistYiLf0qqpmpClmEmLYb2LVlWaVLf3OvnV2QFa82eq3nOjf3EYOczOvdpis4hsr82VpShJD-EQEMxcCz6GhXyaIe0-fKU5vPWxP-S98zeB/s640/nino34.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. CDAS Nino 3.4 time series.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A result of the </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) undergoing a phase change into its warm mode in the late 1970s, is more El Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ño events.⁶ Because of this, higher wind shear in the Atlantic basin likely contributed to the record "11-year hurricane drought" in the United States lasting from 2006 through 2016 (in between the active seasons of 2005 and 2017), when there were <i>no </i>major hurricane strikes (Category 3+) in the Continental United States.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's a fair argument to make - and I would generally agree </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">that natural variations in Earth's climate, changes potentially caused by man like land use, or some combination of the two could alter the intensity and/or frequency of weather patterns and extreme events like heat waves, tornadoes, wildfires, and tropical cyclones. However, the notion that a warming climate </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">-</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> caused by whatever reason </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- worsens such events is <i>not </i>supported by observational data. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In fact, numerous studies and scientific reports have tried finding a linkage between recent human-induced climate change and tropical cyclones, and results have been inconclusive on the matter. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For instance, the <i><a href="http://ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a> </i>openly admitted in their 2013 report that tropical cyclones can <i>not </i>be blamed on climate change. In <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=jn4mCAAAQBAJ&pg=PA73&lpg=PA73&dq=Globally,+there+is+low+confidence+in+attribution+of+changes+in+tropical+cyclone+activity+to+human+influence.+This+is+due+to+insufficient+observational+evidence,+lack+of+physical+understanding+of+the+links+between+anthropogenic+drivers+of+climate+and+tropical+cyclone+activity,+and+the+low+level+of+agreement+between+studies+as+to+the+relative+importance+of+internal+variability,+and+anthropogenic+and+natural+forcings&source=bl&ots=-VBJejoaFh&sig=ACfU3U2k8p-xKRK6VLaCuhyQnrIRXI7E5g&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfxa62g7bjAhXRWc0KHTZGCA4Q6AEwAnoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=Globally%2C%20there%20is%20low%20confidence%20in%20attribution%20of%20changes%20in%20tropical%20cyclone%20activity%20to%20human%20influence.%20This%20is%20due%20to%20insufficient%20observational%20evidence%2C%20lack%20of%20physical%20understanding%20of%20the%20links%20between%20anthropogenic%20drivers%20of%20climate%20and%20tropical%20cyclone%20activity%2C%20and%20the%20low%20level%20of%20agreement%20between%20studies%20as%20to%20the%20relative%20importance%20of%20internal%20variability%2C%20and%20anthropogenic%20and%20natural%20forcings&f=false"><i>IPCC </i>AR5 (2013)</a>, they stated:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence. This is due to insufficient observational evidence, lack of physical understanding of the links between anthropogenic drivers of climate and tropical cyclone activity, and the low level of agreement between studies as to the relative importance of internal variability, and anthropogenic and natural forcings."</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The <i>National Academy of Sciences (NAS) </i>also says that there is low confidence in attributing tropical cyclones on anthropogenic climate change (Figure 5).⁷</span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWoNDowfKNzDGXVkK4FUhLCL6_AvK9wW_bkO7HSwLLB9shfpF3fy16YpNEWr9nO9GNKe7Bp3egd1SQIKTFUutQeDlZKTA3ot5xw_fU5MHLWsFD2CGSkkUUsHf_sWzcLb2Ixf7mKoxptbji/s1600/https___blogs-images.forbes.com_marshallshepherd_files_2019_06_https-blogs-images.forbes.com-marshallshepherd-files-2016-03-Slide13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWoNDowfKNzDGXVkK4FUhLCL6_AvK9wW_bkO7HSwLLB9shfpF3fy16YpNEWr9nO9GNKe7Bp3egd1SQIKTFUutQeDlZKTA3ot5xw_fU5MHLWsFD2CGSkkUUsHf_sWzcLb2Ixf7mKoxptbji/s400/https___blogs-images.forbes.com_marshallshepherd_files_2019_06_https-blogs-images.forbes.com-marshallshepherd-files-2016-03-Slide13.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. Climate change and extreme weather. - <i>National Academy of Sciences (NAS)</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, why are people blaming hurricanes on man-made climate change? It's because they have no clue what they're talking about and are not interested in facts. It's that simple.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">To blame or link extreme, life-threatening weather events, like hurricanes on man-made climate change while the storm is ongoing, is USELESS information to those who may be in the storm's path. The last thing they, or forecasters like me are worried about is whether or not increases in a trace, odorless gas in the atmosphere slightly worsened a storm headed their way. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's one thing for someone to link a single extreme weather event to climate change after the event is all said and done with, assessments are made, and statistics are looked over. It's another to write articles pre-maturely and assume things based on scientific illiteracy.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Skilling, Tom. "Why do some hurricanes move slowly?" <i>WGN-TV | Chicago's Very Own source for breaking news, weather sports and entertainment</i>. July 8, 2017. Accessed July 14, 2019. <a href="https://wgntv.com/2018/07/08/why-do-some-hurricanes-move-slowly/">https://wgntv.com/2018/07/08/why-do-some-hurricanes-move-slowly/</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Tisdale, Bob. "Are Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Near to Record Levels?" <i>Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations</i>. April 30, 2011. Accessed July 14, 2019. <a href="https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/are-gulf-of-mexico-sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-near-to-record-levels/">https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/are-gulf-of-mexico-sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-near-to-record-levels/</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] Sosnowski, Alex. What is wind shear and how does it impact hurricanes, other tropical cyclones?" <i>AccuWeather</i>. Accessed July 14, 2019. <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/70007871">https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/70007871</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] Null, Jan. "El Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ñ</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">o and La Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ñ</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">a Years and Intensities."</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Golden Gate Weather Service</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Accessed July 14, 2019. </span><a href="https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[5] Cowan, Levi. "CDAS Ni</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ño 3.4 Index." <i>Tropical Tidbits</i>. Accessed July 14, </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2019. <a href="https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png">https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[6] D'Aleo, Joseph. "Ocean Multi-Decadal Changes and Temperatures." Accessed July 14, 2019. <a href="http://icecap.us/docs/change/OceanMultidecadalCyclesTemps.pdf">http://icecap.us/docs/change/OceanMultidecadalCyclesTemps.pdf</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[7] "Climate Change and Extreme Weather." <i>Penn State Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science</i>. Accessed July 14, 2019. <a href="https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/l10_p9.html">https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/l10_p9.html</a>.</span>Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-65898751037058410482019-07-08T21:06:00.001-07:002019-07-11T16:21:15.251-07:00Something's Rotten in D.C., and It Isn't Those Rain Totals<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | July 9, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It seems as if every day, there's someone linking ordinary and not-so-ordinary weather events to the "climate crisis." Dare I say that we should actually do a little fact-checking first.<i> </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>"</i></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Nope, we know the answer already. Climate change causes all weather events, big and small, normal and rare."</i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Yet, while my italicized quote is supposed to be funny, that kind of mentality has embedded itself into our reality. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On Monday, July 8, Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) stated that </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>"Unprecedented flooding is quickly becoming a new normal. Despite that, Republicans are tripling down on fossil fuels w/no plan to transition off them, or make the critical infra investments we need to prep for the climate crisis. Each day of inaction puts more of us in danger."</i></span><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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Unprecedented flooding is quickly becoming a new normal.</div>
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Despite that, Republicans are tripling down on fossil fuels w/no plan to transition off them, or make the critical infra investments we need to prep for the climate crisis.</div>
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Each day of inaction puts more of us in danger. <a href="https://t.co/J8yqzguN5O">https://t.co/J8yqzguN5O</a></div>
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— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1148283312798126080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The irony of her statement - when was the last time a politician</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> actually cared about the people they represent? Okay, okay, I'm going to stick to the science!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The congresswoman also stated that extreme weather or weather-related events like flooding and wildfires have gotten worse due to the "climate crisis." (I'm using "climate crisis" in order to be more <i>scientifically precise, </i>like <i>The Guardian</i> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/17/why-the-guardian-is-changing-the-language-it-uses-about-the-environment">stated they would do</a> with their articles. That was pure sarcasm).</span><br />
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Climate change intensifies flooding, wildfires, & extreme weather.</div>
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It’s more than 1 day or 1 storm; it’s all of them. Places are flooding where they haven’t before; there are 90-degree days in Alaska in June. The GOP will mock & sow confusion until it’s their home swept away.</div>
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— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1148291459285733376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Her reference to "unprecedented flooding" was fueled off of headlines detailing flooding in the Washington, D.C. area (where I live and forecast the weather). Indeed, she was right in the sense that the flooding on Monday was impressive, but the usual scaremongering tactic of blaming fossil fuel emissions on the event is just plain pseudoscience and superstition, and doesn't root itself in reality.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">According to the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lwx/"><i>National Weather Service </i>office in Sterling</a>, Virginia, <a href="https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDCA&num=72">official observations</a> from<i> <a href="https://www.flyreagan.com/dca/reagan-national-airport">Reagan National Airport</a></i> indicate that 3.44 inches of rain fell Monday, July 8. This rainfall was not only a record for the date (old record was 2.16 inches from 1958), it was a little over 92% of D.C.'s average July monthly total rainfall of 3.73 inches!</span><br />
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WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS! Today's rainfall total <a href="https://twitter.com/Reagan_Airport?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Reagan_Airport</a> was 3.44 inches, which not only broke the old daily record of 2.16 inches (1958) by 1.28 inches, it was also a little over 92% of the average July monthly rainfall in D.C., which is 3.73 inches Incredible! <a href="https://t.co/mAKHsSBEjF">pic.twitter.com/mAKHsSBEjF</a></div>
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— Chris Martz Weather 🇺🇸 (@ChrisMartzWX) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1148364922193162240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">All of this was caused by a complex of <i>slow-moving </i>thunderstorms that rolled through the area Sunday evening and Monday morning (I can confirm since I live in the area). This was <i>not </i>caused by magic CO₂ fairy dust in the atmosphere. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Flash floods from thunderstorms generally occur when thunderstorm cells are slow-moving, or when different thunderstorm cells move over the same area over and over again.¹ The severity of a flash flood </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">in terms of how fast it develops and how high the water levels get </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">-</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> depend upon factors like the duration of the rain, the rainfall intensity and terminal velocity of raindrops, and/or soil moisture.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹ Sunday</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> evening and Monday morning, the storms were slow-moving and rainfall intensity was high. In addition, last year (2018) was the wettest year on record in Washington, D.C. with 66.28 inches of precipitation falling on the city.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">²</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> 2019 has also been a pretty wet year, with 27.12 inches of rain falling so far.² Thus, soil moisture remains high, and as a result, excess water from rain or runoff can't seep into the ground, creating a higher risk for flash floods.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdyY3p6vsrglLq-UQAwM5EoNYxvjH3B-WJS88GUN3CgwPGDgUHix5T2r89oiKJRbvXt6zRVoVbIoEv-hOd4OAlNnjiw6hKAFFHSDDojN3DsXox6WmvMd9rjOd2_vH3_HXsJs7Q0gmkj3LP/s1600/chart+%25286%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1600" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdyY3p6vsrglLq-UQAwM5EoNYxvjH3B-WJS88GUN3CgwPGDgUHix5T2r89oiKJRbvXt6zRVoVbIoEv-hOd4OAlNnjiw6hKAFFHSDDojN3DsXox6WmvMd9rjOd2_vH3_HXsJs7Q0gmkj3LP/s640/chart+%25286%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. Total precipitation January - December in Washington, D.C. 1872 - 2018,</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, with that said, does her claim about "unprecedented flooding" in D.C. hold any water? Spoiler alert, it doesn't!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Before I show the statistics, her statement doesn't even make any sense. If each new flood is "unprecedented," then that's climatologically not "normal." So how can it become normal? Maybe she means that flash/inland/river flooding is the new normal? If so, that's still wrong. Two strikes in a row AOC, the third is OUT.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Washington, D.C. has a long history of flash flood events, river flooding, and heavy rainfall events, most of which are not even noteworthy because they happen so often, especially the during spring and summer as daytime heating and high dew points act as "trigger mechanisms" to initiate thunderstorm development in the afternoon hours.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Heavy Rainfall Events</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Meteorologist <a href="http://twitter.com/wxbywilliams">Kevin Williams</a> of Rochester, New York made note that of the <i>top ten </i>heaviest 24-hour rainfalls in D.C., only two of the ten have occurred this century. Of the eight heaviest 24-hour rainfalls to be officially recorded in D.C. during the 20th century, seven of them occurred prior to 1975, and five occurred prior to 1970. </span><br />
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Here are the 10 heaviest 24 hour rainstorms on record in D.C. Interesting that 8 of the ten occurred during the previous century. <a href="https://t.co/d7tNF67lj3">pic.twitter.com/d7tNF67lj3</a></div>
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— Kevin Williams (@wxbywilliams) <a href="https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1148305074743066624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, obviously, heavy rainfall events in D.C. are not a new thing.</span> <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What about actual floods?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Some Select Flash Floods & River Flooding in D.C.</b></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">David Birch, a friend of mine and a well-known solar researcher in the climate community sent me <a href="https://www.weatherbook.com/flood.html">this link</a> Monday afternoon, which has a list and description of some of Washington, D.C.'s largest flood events in memory.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, let's break it down.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>1. The "Great Fresh Flood" of May 1771</b> was devastating to the Virginia colony and Washington, D.C. area.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> The </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Virginia Gazette</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> reported, </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"...From the mountains, to the Falls, the low Grounds have been swept of almost every Thing valuable; and the Soil is so much injured that it is thought not to be of Half its former Value, and a great Part is entirely ruined...</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>2. On June 2, 1889</b> the Potomac River crested 12.5 feet above flood stage. Many streets, including Pennsylvania Avenue were flooded (Figure 2).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXaJE_axDQiKCZAiIdkSP5dbxSnWgZsJcgiTu01iV6sFYX6sgwvwH6vf2R8jCZmhsf_WS64BbgNx0Ka1kWQV9DxlPC7W9RAj91JYlGKKcOcmsITTosOZT98sfHHCcwhBZklLIunpHy7U0r/s1600/1889.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="279" data-original-width="450" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXaJE_axDQiKCZAiIdkSP5dbxSnWgZsJcgiTu01iV6sFYX6sgwvwH6vf2R8jCZmhsf_WS64BbgNx0Ka1kWQV9DxlPC7W9RAj91JYlGKKcOcmsITTosOZT98sfHHCcwhBZklLIunpHy7U0r/s400/1889.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. Pennsylvania Avenue flooded on June 2, 1889 in Washington, D.C. Photo credit:<i> Library of Congress</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>3. The Flood of March 17-19, 1936 </b>was one of Northern Virginia's, Maryland's, and D.C.'s worst natural disasters in history.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵ This flood is often noted as the "Record Flood of 1936," "Great Potomac Flood," or the "St. Patrick's Day Flood of 1936."</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">March of 1936 was pretty warm in Washington, D.C., averaging 3.5°F above normal for the month, despite frequent drastic temperature swings from the 40s to the 70s and back.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">²</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Most of Eastern West Virginia, Northern Virginia, and Maryland had </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">received</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> their entire March monthly average rainfall by mid-month.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> While most of the rainfall events were relatively small, the high frequency of them that March allowed stream water levels to increase. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The storm that caused the major flooding was on St. Patrick's day in 1936, when a deepening low in the Carolinas pushed southeast winds and moisture into the region causing intense rainfall.⁵ While most areas in and around the D.C. area saw less than two inches of rain, areas to the west, like the Blue Ridge Mountains received well over four inches of rain in that two day period.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵ The list below is from the <i>National Weather Service</i>. You can see just how impressive those two-day totals were (Figure 4).</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwm1tRvto1PykgW3WOadNRHvgQ8tRplBB5P_fjcTfUPmOpL5d_IFhn6kn60hWsyynvttUYMRazb-2DIBOz5z-bRAh0MhSwEMXaUOfpa2mBBGcNLM037AqF2f2XJvqZioEKlZCHhYITGC3p/s1600/rainfallnws.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="538" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwm1tRvto1PykgW3WOadNRHvgQ8tRplBB5P_fjcTfUPmOpL5d_IFhn6kn60hWsyynvttUYMRazb-2DIBOz5z-bRAh0MhSwEMXaUOfpa2mBBGcNLM037AqF2f2XJvqZioEKlZCHhYITGC3p/s640/rainfallnws.PNG" width="380" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. Two-day rainfall totals from the March 1936 storm.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>4. The "Record Flood of 1942" </b>unfolded over an eight-day period; October 11-18.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> During this event, D.C. picked up over six inches of rain, and floodwaters reached the steps of the Jefferson Memorial (Figure 4).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPrNB83lijNP7IUXxXV4CFlHtIMMVCp_9-1FhvQshLlwdPuDWkvoTedtR-gqPLZTS5mDPD8K-fw1lsXALjnIj8G0c7cMUOUpH0V4VBLYR4g79hgi2KeiQ3wbqg3kD6_nVaPceD2FJlHTpu/s1600/flood1_web.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="203" data-original-width="288" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPrNB83lijNP7IUXxXV4CFlHtIMMVCp_9-1FhvQshLlwdPuDWkvoTedtR-gqPLZTS5mDPD8K-fw1lsXALjnIj8G0c7cMUOUpH0V4VBLYR4g79hgi2KeiQ3wbqg3kD6_nVaPceD2FJlHTpu/s400/flood1_web.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. Jefferson Memorial steps flooded in October 1942 flood.</span></td></tr>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5. The Flash Flood of August 11, 2001 </b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">was one for the books (Figure 5). What's odd about this flash flood event was that it occurred in a narrow band stretching from Warrenton, Virginia to Washington, D.C.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Some storm reports from D.C. and nearby communities noted that upwards of seven inches of rain fell that day.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>Reagan National Airport </i>only received 0.92 inch of rain during the event.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">²</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsaaA4Tad2CMBlKqsSxUVHaUDF_L6lpc6ABGSTOIGa12UJIDpK7htvzNhi-ygrm5ExDPPF9WEApmSNDTuau5DcBBKUPWZmTEBz0V5um5fWCQsHrlUD9RdFu9XGzZlQyL4v9e6ODPCJuvPp/s1600/2001_FLOOD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="335" data-original-width="450" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsaaA4Tad2CMBlKqsSxUVHaUDF_L6lpc6ABGSTOIGa12UJIDpK7htvzNhi-ygrm5ExDPPF9WEApmSNDTuau5DcBBKUPWZmTEBz0V5um5fWCQsHrlUD9RdFu9XGzZlQyL4v9e6ODPCJuvPp/s400/2001_FLOOD.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. Flash flood of August 11, 2001.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Weather vs. Climate</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">People like Representative Cortez seem to have a very difficult time grasping the fundamental differences between weather and climate, which is the fact that weather is based on short-term atmospheric conditions and climate is based long-term trends. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Any individual weather event - regardless of how extreme it is and whether or not it's unprecedented </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">-</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> can simply </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">not </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">be used as evidence for OR against changes in Earth's climate system. The atmosphere </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- as we know </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- is very chaotic in nature and any type of extreme weather event is bound to happen at some time or another notwithstanding global average temperature change. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If you look at the trends in global lower tropospheric temperature since 1979, you'll see that they have undoubtedly gone up, yet we've always had floods (hear that AOC?), we've always had hurricanes, we've always had tornadoes, wildfires, dust-devils, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, thunderstorms, blizzards, and monsoon seasons. While the frequency and/or intensity in such events may or may not alter in either direction due to changes in the climate, because they have always happened, because they're prone to happen, and because there's a lack of sufficient <i>global </i>long-term data, it is <i>extremely difficult </i>and arrogant<i> </i>to pinpoint one weather event as evidence of a "climate crisis."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Flash flood events like the one that occurred on Monday in D.C. are associated with thunderstorms, which are considered "severe convective storms." According to the <i>National Academy of Sciences (NAS)</i>, there is very little evidence to link thunderstorms to man-made climate change, global warming, the climate crisis, or ecological breakdown </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- whichever way you'd like to call it.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁶</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipxTYC13o2Q-b1JD_aLeFcBcx5a8BvD3R6lM8mivqm7xr3s8HZzt6VrS1pwtHAtmy88TXWhsnQDrxrQOABDBFAaO9olz3v1hL_dyZ9NFrWpupmr1W3b_aY9SxDdhj3r3IzHUtBl0iVthRn/s1600/https___blogs-images.forbes.com_marshallshepherd_files_2019_06_https-blogs-images.forbes.com-marshallshepherd-files-2016-03-Slide13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipxTYC13o2Q-b1JD_aLeFcBcx5a8BvD3R6lM8mivqm7xr3s8HZzt6VrS1pwtHAtmy88TXWhsnQDrxrQOABDBFAaO9olz3v1hL_dyZ9NFrWpupmr1W3b_aY9SxDdhj3r3IzHUtBl0iVthRn/s640/https___blogs-images.forbes.com_marshallshepherd_files_2019_06_https-blogs-images.forbes.com-marshallshepherd-files-2016-03-Slide13.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 6. Climate change and extreme weather - <i>National Academy of Sciences (NAS)</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If I were to sum up this nonsense in one sentence I'd say,<i> "There's something rotten in D.C., and it isn't those rainfall totals, it's clueless </i></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>politicians."</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] "Thunderstorm Hazards - Flash Floods" <i>National Weather Service</i>. Accessed July 9, 2019. </span><a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/flood">https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/flood</a>.<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] <i>xmACIS2</i>. Accessed July 9, 2019. </span><a href="https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/">https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] Yeck, Joanne. "The Great Fresh of 1771." <i>Slate River Ramblings... </i>March 13, 2017. Accessed July 9, 2019. <a href="https://slateriverramblings.com/2017/03/13/the-great-fresh-of-1771/">https://slateriverramblings.com/2017/03/13/the-great-fresh-of-1771/</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] Ambrose, Kevin. "Floods - Washington Area Floods." WeatherBook.com. Accessed July 9, 2019. <a href="https://www.weatherbook.com/flood.html">https://www.weatherbook.com/flood.html</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[5] "1936 Flood Retrospective." <i>National Weather Service</i>. Accessed July 9, 2019. <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lwx/1936Flood">https://www.weather.gov/lwx/1936Flood</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[6] "Climate Change and Extreme Weather." <i>Penn State Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science</i>. Accessed July 9, 2019. <a href="https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/l10_p9.html">https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/l10_p9.html</a>.</span>Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-50892879720897137052019-07-08T17:34:00.000-07:002019-07-08T17:34:01.884-07:00US Gulf Coast put on alert for potential tropical storm to form late week<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
After more than a month of inactivity in the tropical Atlantic basin, development is likely in the northern Gulf of Mexico with potential impacts to residents and visitors later this week and this weekend.</div>
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A non-tropical system tracking through and triggering showers and thunderstorms across the South early this week will eventually end up over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico around midweek.</div>
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"The storm will then sit over the Gulf of Mexico for a few days and may eventually become partially or fully tropical in nature during the time period from late this week into next weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.</div>
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Dry air, dust and <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/70007871" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f05514; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">strong wind shear</a> has prevented tropical development across the Atlantic basin since <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/is-it-helpful-to-name-a-weak-storm-such-as-andrea/70008336" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f05514; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Subtropical Storm Andrea briefly roamed the waters</a> of the west-central Atlantic in late May.</div>
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<img alt="Tropical Development 8 am" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/03266f8/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2F34%2F357853284ef88bed36da8df87a1a%2Ftropical-development-8-am.jpg" /></div>
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However, more conducive conditions exist over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.</div>
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With strong wind shear absent, warmer-than-normal waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico can allow an organized tropical or subtropical system to take shape.</div>
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The next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin would be called Barry.</div>
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A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, but can have must as much impact in terms of heavy rain, rough seas and strong winds.</div>
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"One of the keys to whether a depression or storm will form is how close the system tracks to the coast," Douty added. "The longer the system remains over water, the stronger it may become," he said. "However, it may stay non-tropical if it stays near land."</div>
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Development of the feature will be slow initially. However, once it catches, and if the feature remains offshore, it could gain strength at a fast pace.</div>
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"Since there is a chance for the feature to move over open water, it is premature to say that the only threat will be from torrential rain," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.</div>
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The latest trends in steering winds suggest more of drift toward the central and western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.</div>
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"There are a number of petroleum rigs and refineries along the central and western Gulf coast, and there may be considerable risk if this storm ramps up, develops to its full potential and travels in that direction," Sosnowski said.</div>
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Seas would turn dangerously rough for boaters and swimmers as the storm strengthens.</div>
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Regardless of development, the system may lead to multiple days of showers and thunderstorms that can spoil vacation and outdoor plans across the Southeast this week.</div>
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<img alt="This week" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/c169f08/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F33%2F6f%2Fe5fbcd4a405eb48b5c299237a933%2Fthis-week.jpg" /></div>
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<a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/flood-rescue-safety-risk-untrained-bystanders-social-media-video/59953162" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(205, 62, 2); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(205, 62, 2); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(205, 62, 2); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(205, 62, 2); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #cd3e02; cursor: pointer; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Flood dangers</a> can arise in areas that get hit repeatedly by downpours or where a more concentrated band of heavy rain unfolds.</div>
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"As we have seen in the past couple of decades in the Deep South, sometimes these tropical features stall and produce torrential rainfall once they make landfall," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.</div>
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"Allison did that in 2001 and Harvey did that in 2017," Kottlowski said.</div>
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While Harvey was once a major hurricane, Allison peaked as a tropical storm. So a powerful hurricane is not necessary for tremendous rainfall and flooding.</div>
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A broad area of moisture alone will cause downpours and localized flooding over parts of the Southeast, including the Florida Peninsula this week even in absence of any tropical depression or storm.</div>
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<img alt="Downpours Gulf Wed Thurs" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/a841aaa/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F43%2F4a%2Ff08d45ac48cbbf6b43061437d751%2Fdownpours-gulf-wed-thurs.jpeg" /></div>
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"Residents from western Florida to eastern Louisiana should especially remain alert for an increase in downpours and a heightened risk for flooding later this week and into the start of the weekend," Douty said.</div>
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The downpours would spread westward, depending on the storm's eventual development and track. </div>
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<img alt="Gulf Friday Saturday" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/8878dbf/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fb9%2Fa691535f410e9f367bd64b5f3feb%2Fgulf-friday-saturday.jpeg" /></div>
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After the system leaves the Gulf of Mexico, its eventual track will determine whether heavy rain aims for the interior South or the threat continues in the Deep South.</div>
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With weak steering winds now and into next week, any feature that wanders onshore may not be in a hurry to leave or move well inland.</div>
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Kottlowski has been warning since early April that the Gulf of Mexico, as well as areas east of Bermuda and off the southeastern coast of the U.S. need to be watched closely for early season development due to water temperatures running above normal.</div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
AccuWeather’s 2019 predictions have not changed since the <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/70007852" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-bottom-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f59721; font-family: Heebo,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" target="_blank">initial forecast was released on April 3</a>.</div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
Forecasters continue to call for 12 to 14 tropical cyclones this season. Of those, five to seven are predicted to become hurricanes and two to four are predicted to become major hurricanes.</div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
While El Niño conditions may suppress the numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property.</div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
This year, AccuWeather will implement its <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-new-realimpact-scale-for-hurricanes-will-revolutionize-damage-predictions-for-greater-public-safety/70007111" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border-bottom-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(245, 151, 33); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f59721; font-family: Heebo,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" target="_blank">RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes</a> to assist with public safety and understanding, as well as risk of damage should a tropical threat arise.</div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
"If the scale was retroactively used, Tropical Storm Allison would have a RealImpact of 4 and Harvey would have a RealImpact of 5, based primarily on flooding rainfall," Kottlowski said.</div>
</span><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #000520;">Tropical Storm Emily from 2017 was the last time that a named tropical system made landfall in the United States during the month of July. Emily formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved into the central Florida Peninsula on the last day of July.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-image: none; border: 0px rgb(31, 56, 77); box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 15px 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 15px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Tropical development more likely in the Gulf of Mexico</span></div>
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<a class="timage" data-src="https://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/atlantic_nhc_activity.gif" data-title="NHC Atlantic Activity" href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><img alt="NHC Atlantic Activity" height="184" src="https://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/atlantic_nhc_activity.gif" width="295" /></a></div>
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
There are currently no organized tropical systems across the Atlantic Ocean, though AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring for development across the Gulf of Mexico during the second half of the week.<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></div>
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A weak upper-level disturbance will drop to the south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and into Wednesday and will slowly drift to the west through the remainder of the week. The water across the Gulf is very warm and wind shear is expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation. As a result, it is increasingly likely that a tropical system will form in the northern Gulf later this week.<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
Accuweather meteorologists will be closely monitoring this potential over the next several days. Given uncertainty in the track, anyone with interests from eastern Texas to northern Florida should monitor the progress of this system.<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
Elsewhere across the basin, either high wind shear or large amounts of dry, dusty air will continue to inhibit tropical development from the Caribbean into the eastern Atlantic.<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.</div>
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Ricky Chenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11334635895280298773noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-83918331951974639422019-07-06T13:32:00.000-07:002019-07-06T13:51:18.765-07:00Could a tropical storm brew before the middle of July in Gulf of Mexico?<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 15px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
Showers and thunderstorms forecast to congeal along the coast of the southern United States next week and could slowly allow a storm to brew that may be tropical in nature.</div>
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While much of the Atlantic Basin is likely to remain hostile for tropical development due to large areas of dry air, dust and <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/70007871" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f05514; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">wind shear</a>, there is a somewhat more likely area where development may take place in the coming days.</div>
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The southeastern part of the nation, including parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, will become an active zone for showers and thunderstorms into next week</div>
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<img alt="SE week July 5" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/84f5c4d/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F99%2F5b%2Fa462f7214720a1becd4da1f9d176%2Fse-week-july-5.jpeg" /></div>
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Slightly cooler air aloft associated with a developing non-tropical storm, combined with warm and humid conditions, will spur on thundery downpours this weekend through next week.</div>
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However, during next week through next weekend, the storm aloft may slowly spin down to the surface.</div>
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"At this time, it appears the most likely area for slow development would be over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps near the coasts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.</div>
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"That development could be tropical or subtropical in nature," Kottlowski said.</div>
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A <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/sozbwzqq" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f05514; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">subtropical storm</a> has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.</div>
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Subtropical storms tend to be somewhat lopsided and may contain pockets of dry air near the center. However, in terms of impact, they can also bring heavy rainfall, rough sea and surf conditions and strong winds, just like their true tropical storm cousin.</div>
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Development may occur as early as the middle of next week or as late as next weekend. It is also possible that the system fails to develop should all the necessary ingredients not come together.</div>
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<img alt="noaa tropical threat july 7" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/202f2b2/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ff4%2F9e%2F4a354248412f8a443be621f738e0%2Fnoaa-tropical-threat-july-7.32.16%20PM.png" /></div>
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It is possible that the development zone extends northeastward off the Georgia and Carolina coast next week. This will be a swath where showers and thunderstorms extend over the Atlantic.</div>
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In any event, the area around the northeastern Gulf coast may be prone to several days of downpours from a slow-moving storm.</div>
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At some point, the more concentrated batch of downpours and thunderstorms associated with the feature, tropical or not, may be pulled inland over the South and then northeastward around an area of <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-are-high-pressure-systems-and-how-do-they-contribute-to-our-weather/70005291" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f05514; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">high pressure</a> near Bermuda.</div>
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There is another area, located in a narrow zone immediately west of Africa, where there is a plume of moisture and slightly lower wind shear.</div>
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This area is the source of tropical waves or disturbances that move westward across Africa in the form of gusty winds and locally heavy thunderstorms.</div>
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These waves often result in the bulk of tropical storms and hurricane over the Atlantic Basin from August through September and October. This period is the heart of hurricane season with the peak in September.</div>
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<img alt="Static Atlantic Hurricane Frequency" src="https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/275659f/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3b%2Ffb%2F73e558a1463dadb61612d99c9e7f%2Fstatic-atlantic-hurricane-frequency.jpg" /></div>
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Any such development through next week off Africa will have to fight against dry, dusty air to the immediate north.</div>
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While El Niño conditions may suppress the numbers of tropical storms and hurricane in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property.</div>
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This year, AccuWeather will implement its <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-new-realimpact-scale-for-hurricanes-will-revolutionize-damage-predictions-for-greater-public-safety/70007111" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(240, 85, 20); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f05514; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes</a> to assist with public safety and understanding, as well as risk of damage should a tropical threat arise.</div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-image: none; border: 0px rgb(31, 56, 77); box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 15px 0px 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 15px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now</span></div>
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<a class="timage" data-src="https://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/atlantic_nhc_activity.gif" data-title="NHC Atlantic Activity" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="NHC Atlantic Activity" height="184" src="https://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/atlantic_nhc_activity.gif" width="295" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">There are no organized tropical systems across the Atlantic Ocean, and AccuWeather meteorologists do not foresee tropical development through the weekend.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Much of the basin is being dominated by either high wind shear or large amounts of dry, dusty air. While there are several tropical waves traversing the Atlantic Ocean, the aforementioned factors will continue to inhibit any development through the end of the week.<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span><br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-image: none; border: 0px rgb(31, 56, 77); box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 400 16px/18px helvetica,arial,sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 10px 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">There are projections showing a few stronger tropical waves emerging from the coast of Africa, one this weekend and a second early next week. These waves may have a higher chance of development than tropical waves we have seen during the past few weeks, but current modeling does not show significant strengthening with these. Wind shear is projected to lessen across the eastern Atlantic during this time, so the main limiting factor may be the dry and dusty air coming from the Sahara.<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></span></div>
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<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-image: none; border: 0px rgb(31, 56, 77); box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 400 16px/18px helvetica,arial,sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 10px 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1f384d; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Later next week, an upper-level low pressure system over the southeastern United States may emerge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a couple of days. If this occurs, very warm water and relatively low wind shear in that region may allow a tropical or subtropical system to develop near the Eastern Gulf Coast. Accuweather meteorologists will be closely monitoring this potential over the next several days.<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></span></div>
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By AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido</div>
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<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><br />Ricky Chenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11334635895280298773noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-56889839122746214272019-07-01T17:39:00.001-07:002019-07-09T17:23:40.131-07:00Typical Summer Hailstorm Causes Climate Change Hysteria<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | July 1, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Did you hear about the hailstorm that just recently hit Guadalajara, Mexico (Figure 1)? </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH681uDROwUjQKNKon8coJwkKcO5aujQoHZ_mq9SMdElHDE3d6i495I1HgcHv0XupY5QmF2iwsExnSH0P89VSLAsU7a2BKPC5K2ta5fQaGhR0uEjvE5azlv8RD0xT0HITql3WPSdQetSAK/s1600/Hail+in+mexico.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="960" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH681uDROwUjQKNKon8coJwkKcO5aujQoHZ_mq9SMdElHDE3d6i495I1HgcHv0XupY5QmF2iwsExnSH0P89VSLAsU7a2BKPC5K2ta5fQaGhR0uEjvE5azlv8RD0xT0HITql3WPSdQetSAK/s640/Hail+in+mexico.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. Hail cleanup in Mexico.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">You likely did and while impressive in photos, it was nothing out of the ordinary for the region. It's once again, wacky journalism and scientific illiteracy that has you all hyped up and in panic mode. Numerous articles have surfaced, like this one from <i>CBS News </i>describing how "6 feet of hail fell on Guadalajara, Mexico" (Figure 2).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹ <b>Please note that I have nothing against <i>CBS News</i>, I'm just pointing out the simple fact that the article is a bit misleading...</b></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHSEZ3_VGFyutOsy3WcNwG-91svj2A_XMrVJQT4vNUjA5TYAa67b0aKiGJlbXpIsOdFAAo2VcIObct_TuRch0bIsz9j2UMN3RHITZSc4lPaQ2DJUDIYRurzL0qaKVCfVbPEQdXCawS2zam/s1600/CBS+News+Guadalajara.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="1130" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHSEZ3_VGFyutOsy3WcNwG-91svj2A_XMrVJQT4vNUjA5TYAa67b0aKiGJlbXpIsOdFAAo2VcIObct_TuRch0bIsz9j2UMN3RHITZSc4lPaQ2DJUDIYRurzL0qaKVCfVbPEQdXCawS2zam/s640/CBS+News+Guadalajara.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. Freak hailstorm dumps up to 6 feet of ice on Guadalajara, Mexico - <i>CBS News</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Social media (i.e. <i>Twitter</i>) started to jump on the bandwagon train after articles like this were published, and it didn't take long before people began to blame global warming, climate change, the ecological breakdown, climate crisis, global heating, global change, or whatever they call it nowadays on the "freak" hailstorm. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The governor of the Mexican state Jalisco, Enrique Alfaro, suggested that climate change may be the cause of the hailstorm.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹ The entire problem with that mindset is that climate change </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">regardless of the main cause — does not actually cause [extreme] weather events. Climate change itself may amplify or reduce extreme weather intensity or frequency to a degree, but it most certainly does <i>not </i>cause extreme weather to occur. It is unknown whether or not a certain weather event would occur in a warmer or colder world, considering that events like hailstorms have occurred for as long as we know.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>What Causes Hail?</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hail itself is a common occurrence during summertime, as they form from frozen water droplets that collide with supercooled water droplet suspended in the air by thunderstorm updrafts.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> The stronger an updraft is, the longer the hailstone stays in the air colliding with more supercooled water droplets, and as a result, the larger the hailstone grows.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Eventually, it along with other hailstones become too heavy, and fall to Earth's surface from the thunderstorm updraft.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴ (See Figure 3).</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-22S7fntjCTz3mX9mlEDuGDxewddjMYE2IGodQXVNccjqvVzAnruwJKZtYvKpjCZbyLzVW4XqGJrVBC5qTVWrixIYWiFz4OAJ0caM9Gmq3lXJHwaCcq35X8SJUws1oiiIhpCr4v9ha_FY/s1600/Hail+formation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="590" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-22S7fntjCTz3mX9mlEDuGDxewddjMYE2IGodQXVNccjqvVzAnruwJKZtYvKpjCZbyLzVW4XqGJrVBC5qTVWrixIYWiFz4OAJ0caM9Gmq3lXJHwaCcq35X8SJUws1oiiIhpCr4v9ha_FY/s640/Hail+formation.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. Hail formation - <a href="https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/590250378127548416">original image</a> from Brad Panovich.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Hailstorms in NW Mexico Are More Common Than You Think</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Like hail, lightning is a good indicator of thunderstorms. The map below (Figure 4) shows the average annual number of lightning strikes per square kilometer across the globe.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² As you can see, western, mountainous Mexico </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— where Guadalajara is located </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">—</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> sees a high number of lightning strikes per year, as compared to other areas.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² This is a good indicator of frequent hailstorms.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPQl3o2KdaGI-95atQ_cmGKzZZMAU_j_eQDF2G76hgkqQDPmZBKL7-a4g7UTBwnIst-Th41xR6LQaX8hQpoq4-Qyu3gXkGHfJ60c7jOjH4LllL1wXVPQHH7DGa7xuVGlRihQQgjtbSZ_cL/s1600/lightning+flashes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPQl3o2KdaGI-95atQ_cmGKzZZMAU_j_eQDF2G76hgkqQDPmZBKL7-a4g7UTBwnIst-Th41xR6LQaX8hQpoq4-Qyu3gXkGHfJ60c7jOjH4LllL1wXVPQHH7DGa7xuVGlRihQQgjtbSZ_cL/s400/lightning+flashes.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. Lightning flashes per year.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281977%29016%3C0626%3ATSOH%3E2.0.CO%3B2">1977 study</a> of North American Hail by Stan Changnon Jr. found that hail is most likely to occur during the Spring and Summer months in the Central Plateau and high mountains of Mexico, while simultaneously less common around coastal mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Moreover, mountainous regions experience on average, four or more "hail days" annually.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While average annual lightning strikes </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— as previously stated </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— are a potential indicator of more hailstorms as Dr. Marshall Shepherd <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/07/01/why-caution-is-needed-with-those-hail-pictures-in-mexico/">noted</a>, it's certainly not applicable to all locations. For instance, Florida has the most annual number of thunderstorms in the U.S., but at the same time less hail than Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— commonly referred to as "hail alley."</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">²</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Those three states on average have seven to nine hail days per year according to </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://noaa.gov/">NOAA</a></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² The reason for this is because the freezing level in the atmosphere </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— where temperatures fall to freezing </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">— is closer to th</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">e ground due to mountainous terrain as compared to Florida's flat terrain.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² The same can be said about Guadalajara, which sits at an elevation of 5,138 feet.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁶ This high elevation, once again means that the atmosphere's freezing level is closer to the ground, thus it should be to no surprise that hailstorms are a somewhat common occurrence.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Meteorologist<a href="http://drroyspencer.com/"> Dr. Roy Spencer</a>, of <i><a href="https://www.uah.edu/">University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH)</a></i>, found this hand-drawn map (Figure 5) of global hail frequency from a 1973 study.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁷</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> The map clearly shows that Guadalajara receives a great number of hail days per year.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁷</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Somehow, journalists completely omitted</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> this.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOa32E_aDLxmHgveCiI4u4C_beelPTugseq_V_loaAM9k15lEQnqRPcZmqEMbALWfBC2Inq2AX2WxyaHhkEYT-wxq18JjOA4IauvRLoyT1e9elGrZKmPcxURqrylqqPQOZwDA7FGLKzJf7/s1600/Untitled+presentation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOa32E_aDLxmHgveCiI4u4C_beelPTugseq_V_loaAM9k15lEQnqRPcZmqEMbALWfBC2Inq2AX2WxyaHhkEYT-wxq18JjOA4IauvRLoyT1e9elGrZKmPcxURqrylqqPQOZwDA7FGLKzJf7/s640/Untitled+presentation.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. Global hail frequency.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>What About That "6 Feet of Hail?"</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This simply didn't happen. Six feet of hail did not fall out of the sky onto Guadalajara. When major hailstorms occur, heavy rain is often present, and as we know, heavy rain causes flooding.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁷ This flooding causes currents of water to flow through streets, in which hail becomes deposited into large, scattered piles.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁷ </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The Summary of It All</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It should be eye-opening to you that people actually think every weather event is this existential crisis. It should also be eye-opening to you that people think every weather event that occurs has "never happened before." Perhaps it's just me, but I have seen a frightening rise in this mindset among people, that's politically motivated. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As I have been saying for quite some time now, it's very important that people take a step back and look at the mechanisms and causes, rather than assuming it's climate change at work. This narrow view of catastrophic climate change continues to advance down a very dark path that needs to have it's brakes applied on immediately.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Brito, Christopher. "Freak hailstorm dumps up to 6 feet of ice on Guadalajara, Mexico." CBS News. July 1, 2019. Accessed July 1, 2019. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-hail-storm-up-to-6-feet-of-ice-dropped-guadalajara-north-mexico-city-in-summertime-freak-hail-storm-sunday/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-hail-storm-up-to-6-feet-of-ice-dropped-guadalajara-north-mexico-city-in-summertime-freak-hail-storm-sunday/</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Shepherd, Marshall. "Why Caution is Needed With Those Hail Pictures in Mexico." Forbes. July 1, 2019. Accessed July 1, 2019. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/07/01/why-caution-is-needed-with-those-hail-pictures-in-mexico/#759936502cf5">https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/07/01/why-caution-is-needed-with-those-hail-pictures-in-mexico/#759936502cf5</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] "How Does Hail Form?" NASA Precipitation Education. Accessed July 1, 2019. <a href="https://pmm.nasa.gov/education/content/how-does-hail-form">https://pmm.nasa.gov/education/content/how-does-hail-form</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] "Thunderstorm Hazards - Hail" NWS JetStream. Accessed July 1, 2019. <a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/hail">https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/hail</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[5] Changnon, Stanley. "The Scales of Hail." Journals of Applied Meteorology. April 22, 1977. Accessed July 1, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281977%29016%3C0626%3ATSOH%3E2.0.CO%3B2">https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281977%29016%3C0626%3ATSOH%3E2.0.CO%3B2</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[6] "Guadalajara." Wikipedia. June 23, 2019. Accessed July 1, 2019. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalajara">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalajara</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[7] Spencer, Roy. "The 'Freak' Guadalajara Hailstorm wasn't So Freakish." July 1, 2019. Accessed July 1, 2019. <a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/07/the-freak-guadalajara-hailstorm-wasnt-so-freakish/">http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/07/the-freak-guadalajara-hailstorm-wasnt-so-freakish/</a>.</span>Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-86612841359054492492019-06-23T18:06:00.002-07:002019-06-23T18:14:36.134-07:00Show Your Stripes? I'm Not So Sure<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | June 22, 2019</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">June 21 was not only the summer solstice for the Northern Hemisphere, it was also #MetsUnite day; a day for broadcast meteorologists to #ShowYourStripes.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Ed Hawkins, a climatologist at the </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">University of Reading</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, created these banner-like graphics (Figure 1) that are colored to show how Earth has supposedly warmed since 1850.¹ Each vertical stripe represents one year of average temperature.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDht5D1s5S5qFTJWwEvB9K7emXP7kbBZz-6778G1w-R0oSoHWitEou-OFBlEkzIh6MwpRwcyF9EiTdnVvOw2JFD02-8gtom5oCM8HF-Fn1E4Dj_2pcwLfz1XAPmWg9K5r0PH4gzGIvUBxv/s1600/https___blogs-images.forbes.com_marshallshepherd_files_2019_06_GLOBE-1850-2018-MO-1200x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="960" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDht5D1s5S5qFTJWwEvB9K7emXP7kbBZz-6778G1w-R0oSoHWitEou-OFBlEkzIh6MwpRwcyF9EiTdnVvOw2JFD02-8gtom5oCM8HF-Fn1E4Dj_2pcwLfz1XAPmWg9K5r0PH4gzGIvUBxv/s400/https___blogs-images.forbes.com_marshallshepherd_files_2019_06_GLOBE-1850-2018-MO-1200x600.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. "Show Your Stripes" banner depicting global temperature trends.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hawkins has a new interactive <a href="https://showyourstripes.info/">website</a> dedicated to these banners, of which you can choose any country you'd like and one of these banners will pop up.² In the U.S., you can further select any state of your preference </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">(Figure 2)</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">.²</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicYpKxOqCHv3jhzayN35ImhgE6Y6R_4YDS1WL9UbCMas-2f1M97XSSNmqn4vlOiY56yrp0DZXoNkg0-i-68LNvJn8tDS1Rt2oU2ohAQJLSWB1iQ3znA9BXuuPQkrthqE79L2hkwRsWufTT/s1600/Show+Your+Stripes.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1600" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicYpKxOqCHv3jhzayN35ImhgE6Y6R_4YDS1WL9UbCMas-2f1M97XSSNmqn4vlOiY56yrp0DZXoNkg0-i-68LNvJn8tDS1Rt2oU2ohAQJLSWB1iQ3znA9BXuuPQkrthqE79L2hkwRsWufTT/s640/Show+Your+Stripes.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. Warming stripes for Virginia from 1895 - 2018.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, how accurate are these #ShowYourStripes banners? Are they spot-on accurate, or are they a total waste of website bandwidth? Let's find out.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Before I discuss the temperature data, let's take a look at the number of <i>Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)</i> stations over time. As you can see in Figure 3 below, the number of stations reached a peak sometime between 1960 and 1980 with nearly 5,500 stations globally.³ In 1880, when temperature records began, there were only about 500 <i>GHCN </i>stations across the globe, and that number didn't cross 1,000 until the mid-1890s.³ The number of stations steadily grew from approximately 1,000 to nearly 3,000 from the 1890s leading up to the end of World War II.³ After World War II, only then did the number of stations skyrocket.³ Following a "boom" in station count, the number has been dropping consistently since the 1980s.³</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Over that entire time period, the only country that has had an excellent temperature record is the United States, although there are a handful of other countries that have <i>decent </i>long-term records too. This is because the U.S. had and still has the most station coverage relative to it's landmass as compared to any other country. Thus, one can only conclude that temperature records from <i>almost </i>any other country are essentially worthless, let alone a global temperature record. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEgyeFwZR4bwFlwwkHUV73h6As7OpjAGcmxNxgF04OlLNcUQEkDaZaP6VofHkNzPAJ5_w68nnvW-_cCF642zEJOZb1-9GVNWIkaDutT6QGMNBMK_OSEecwpmfT6yVOXqo43uob5qyb1kyf/s1600/Number+of+Stations.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="497" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEgyeFwZR4bwFlwwkHUV73h6As7OpjAGcmxNxgF04OlLNcUQEkDaZaP6VofHkNzPAJ5_w68nnvW-_cCF642zEJOZb1-9GVNWIkaDutT6QGMNBMK_OSEecwpmfT6yVOXqo43uob5qyb1kyf/s400/Number+of+Stations.PNG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. Number of global GHCN stations.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Over 6,000 stations have records shorter than 20 years, which isn't even long enough to officially calculate a "climate normal," which is 30 years.³ More than half of the <i>GHCN </i>stations have records no longer than 50 to 60 years, which is barely long enough to show cyclical changes in the climate on multidecadal time scales.³ (See Figure 4).</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. Station record length.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I find it very suspicious that we "have" an accurate global temperature record if there is a lack of long-term data and station coverage on a global scale. Because of these conditions, I want to lastly direct your attention to the United States, which without comparison, has the best temperature record in the world.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">According to Ed's website, U.S. temperatures (Figure 5) are the warmest that they have ever been just in the last decade. </span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. U.S. warming stripes.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Actual raw data says otherwise. Since 1895, U.S. temperatures have seen no significant trend (Figure 6), yet the stripes at the end are showing that the U.S. is seeing it's warmest ever past few years (Figure 5).⁴</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 6. Average mean temperature vs. year for the U.S.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I have no doubt in my mind that global temperatures have indeed risen since and much prior to 1880, there is plenty evidence of it. However, exactly how much warming we have seen globally since official records began in 1880 might not be 1°C (1.8</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">F), it could very well be a bit less, and without sufficient long-term data, nobody really knows. For example, there are only 522 <i>GHCN </i>stations (Figures 7 and 8) that have been active since 1900, and most of those are in the United States.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 7. <i>NASA </i>map of <i>GHCN </i>stations active in both January 1900 and May 2019 (NH).</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 8. <i>NASA </i>map of <i>GHCN </i>stations active in both January 1900 and May 2019 (SH).</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The question isn't whether or not each individual station's data is accurate (more than likely is), it's a question of the global temperature record. Without sufficient long-term data from any other country except for the U.S., I remain skeptical of the accuracy of such graphs.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Shepherd, Marshall. "Why TV Meteorologists Will 'Show Their Stripes' For Climate on June 21st." Forbes. June 19, 2019. Accessed June 23, </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2019. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/06/19/why-tv-meteorologists-will-show-their-stripes-for-climate-on-june-21st/">https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/06/19/why-tv-meteorologists-will-show-their-stripes-for-climate-on-june-21st/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Hawkins, Ed. "#ShowYourStripes." #ShowYourStripes, University of Reading. Accessed June 23, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://showyourstripes.info/">https://showyourstripes.info/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] Schmidt, Gavin A. "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis." NASA GISS. June 12, 2019. Accessed June 23, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/stdata/">https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/stdata/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] Heller, Tony. "UNHIDING THE DECLINE For Windows." The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. August 14, 2017. Accessed June 23, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://realclimatescience.com/unhiding-the-decline-for-windows/">https://realclimatescience.com/unhiding-the-decline-for-windows/</a>.</span></div>
Chris Martz Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17389126110276701489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-23618237137985270362019-06-18T19:25:00.001-07:002019-06-19T06:46:06.623-07:00Remaining Quiet Across the Atlantic Basin<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(31, 56, 77); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1f384d; font-family: helvetica,arial,sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 10px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
By Ricky Chen | June 18, 2019<br />
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There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic basin at this time. While there are several tropical waves traversing the basin, a large area of dry air and dust covers the eastern Atlantic. This continues to suppress the development of these westward-moving waves.</div>
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In addition, a ribbon of moderate to strong wind shear that often prevents robust tropical development extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic basin. Long-range computer forecast information shows no support for tropical development of any of these tropical waves through at least next week.<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Original post by <i>AccuWeather </i>senior meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.</span>Ricky Chenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11334635895280298773noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-86108111558181940502019-06-15T14:46:00.000-07:002019-06-19T06:46:49.013-07:00My Top 8 Annoyances in the Climate Change Debate<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | June 15, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As an aspiring meteorologist, I take my passion far beyond what many weather enthusiasts do. Rather than just giving a weather forecast, I like to explain why something is happening, and likewise with the climate. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Earth's climate system is very dynamic, meaning that it's prone to change due to any number of reasons, it's not uniformly controlled by atmospheric carbon dioxide, contrary to what you hear in the press.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Instead of talking about why climate changes, I want to do something different. Whenever I go to debate someone on climate change, they do one, two, or all of three things; that is call me a "denier" and hurl personal attacks at me, question my credentials, or use straw-man arguments rather than trying to prove me wrong. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In the process of weather forecasting, I look at different forecast models which lay out different solutions for how the weather will play out in the days and weeks ahead. I choose certain models which I think have the best solution to make my forecast, but also look at models that may provide a different solution; that may actually work better. In my few years of spending hours a day studying climate change, I have sided with the "skeptics." However, as an open-minded individual, I seek for information that may prove me wrong (and in some instances, I will admit that I have been wrong). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">With that said, let's take a look at some of my biggest annoyances in the climate change debate.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>8. <i>Climate activists </i>skew the term "climate change." </b>This isn't necessarily an annoyance per se, but it is a little aggravating at times. Decades ago, the term "climate change" would mean a change in climate, not necessarily a result of man-made processes. Nowadays, it's simply assumed as if climate change is man-made.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>7. Politicians using the media to distort scientific research. </b>This one's a no-brainer. We all know that politicians lie regardless of their political party affiliation. We also know that media outlet ratings are heavily weighed on politics, thus politicians use the media in order to spread their messages in hopes of gaining support for when election time rolls around. Climate change is a hot topic in politics and is very partisan among Democrats and Republicans. Politicians will often take scientific research and only read the summary at the beginning, known as the "abstract" without looking at the different different scenarios of what may happen further down the road as a result of negative and positive feedbacks in the climate system, </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">and use the summary and worst-case scenario in proposed legislature.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>6. <i>Climate activists </i>questioning my credentials. </b>At some point in a debate (if it even makes it that far), the opposition will ask me about my credentials. In other words, they want to see if I am "credible enough" to be talking about climate change. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Here is my response to that: </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As of the time this article was written (June 15, 2019), I am an <i>aspiring </i>meteorologist. I am not currently a "degreed" meteorologist, but I am planning on going to college to major and get a Masters of Science (M.S.) in meteorology. In addition, I have had very good email (and Twitter DM) discussions with various meteorologists and climatologists. Some of them agree with me, some of them don't. It should also be noted that at 16 years old, I have been able to write articles for <i>Watts Up With That?</i>, <i>Climate Change Dispatch</i>, and <i>Climatism</i>, a proud achievement that many my age (and older) have and will never get the opportunity to do.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, just because I am not currently a scientist, doesn't mean I don't know what I'm talking about. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>5. <i>Climate activists </i>appeal to authority and citation of a consensus. </b>Over and over and over again, people who preach the climate crisis appeal to authority. Appealing to authority does nothing to propagate the advancement of science, as it's an argument that people use to claim that something "must be true" just because it's believed by someone who is considered to be an "authority" on a subject. Just because the majority of scientists <i>may say </i>"ABC," whereas contrarians say "XYZ" does <i>NOT </i>make the consensus correct!</span><br />
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4. <i>Climate activists </i>unwillingness to debate. </b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Tony Heller has proven this one to be true time and time again. One of the best examples was when </span><a href="https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/status/1019674450596249600" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">he asked Keith Carson</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> to debate, then Keith backed down a few hours later. I too will often try to debate people, and they end up backing down, refusing to debate, or blocking me on </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Twitter</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">. Michael Mann, Katherine Hayhoe, and Peter Gleick are notorious for this (it's their accounts and their choice, so they can do what pleases them, but it isn't very professional to block someone when they are trying to debate you).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>3. <i>Skeptics </i>constant use of cold weather and snow to try and disprove global warming is happening. </b>Day in and day out, I see fellow skeptics (some of whom I look up to) use cold weather events or snow days as evidence against global warming. Single weather events can not be used as evidence against global warming.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>2. <i>Climate activists </i>say weather does not equal climate, then turn around and use a single heat wave to try and prove global warming. </b>While I agree with climate change activists reminding skeptics that weather and climate are not the same, these climate activists constantly do an about-face and blame hot weather on climate change. This too, is foolish because one day's worth of record heat is not part of a long-term trend. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>1. <i>Climate activists </i>use the use of the term "climate [change] denier." </b>Last, but definitely not least, this is my all time <i>biggest </i>annoyance in the climate change debate. I have seen the words "climate denier," "climate change denier," or simply "denier" used all <i>too many </i>times. As far as I'm concerned, there is <i>nobody </i>on Earth who denies the fact that climate changes at the very least naturally. Even those who call themselves "deniers" are not really deniers. Climate has been in a constant state of change for over 4.5 billion years, and will continue to do so in the future. </span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-82770944617310915892019-06-12T16:53:00.000-07:002019-06-19T06:47:19.841-07:00What Were Those Horizontal Rainbow Stripes Stretching Across the Sky on Wednesday?<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | June 12, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">
Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Numerous people (including myself) have come forth to share some photos of colorful rainbow stripes spotted within the clouds over the Washington, D.C. area on Wednesday. A handful of photos of these strange, yet mesmerizing optical phenomena have been shared on <i>Twitter</i> from people in various locations throughout the area, including Frederick, MD, Loudoun County, VA, and Berryville, VA.</span><br />
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Check out this cool rainbow cloud I captured on camera today in Berryville, VA. This is the first time I have seen "cloud iridescense" like this. <a href="https://twitter.com/spann?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@spann</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/StormHour?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@StormHour</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherNation?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WeatherNation</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JimCantore?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JimCantore</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/capitalweather?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@capitalweather</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BigJoeBastardi</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Verz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@verz</a> <a href="https://t.co/33SLfocX65">pic.twitter.com/33SLfocX65</a></div>
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— Chris Martz Weather (@ChrisMartzWX) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1138927896775593986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While many refer to this optic as a "fire rainbow" due to it's colorful, flame-like appearance, the technical term for this is a "circumhorizontal arc."</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Often spotted during the spring and summer months, circumhorizontal arcs arise when sunlight is refracted (bent) through hexagonally-shaped ice crystals while the sun is simultaneously</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> at 58° above the horizon (usually between noon and 2:00 p.m.).¹ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> When the sun's rays strike ice crystals composing high, thin, wispy cirrus clouds (which form at elevations greater than 20,000 feet),</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> the rays are split into a wide array of colors.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Unlike regular rainbows, these clouds have nothing to due with rain.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">² </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span></div>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/capitalweather?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@capitalweather</a> Spotted in Loudoun VA. Any idea what causes this? <a href="https://t.co/nMlMkkflTU">pic.twitter.com/nMlMkkflTU</a></div>
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— Tyler Koontz (@1TylerKoontz) <a href="https://twitter.com/1TylerKoontz/status/1138870468524597248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Circumhorizontal arcs are <i>not </i>to be confused with circumzenithal arcs, which are upside-down rainbows that occur when the sun is anywhere from 5</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> to 32</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> above the horizon.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">³</span></div>
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Of course! And here's another view from a vertical perspective. <a href="https://t.co/ZIPuPvqtRE">pic.twitter.com/ZIPuPvqtRE</a></div>
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— Adam Van Grack (@WhitewaterAtty) <a href="https://twitter.com/WhitewaterAtty/status/1138920911631986688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></div>
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This was just earlier today at Lansdowne in Leesburg <a href="https://t.co/7Xa1eHN5Yj">pic.twitter.com/7Xa1eHN5Yj</a></div>
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— William Gessaman (@willygmanVA) <a href="https://twitter.com/willygmanVA/status/1138916302217732102?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></div>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/dougkammerer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@dougkammerer</a> interesting rainbow cloud formation over Frederick, MD this afternoon. <a href="https://t.co/HCgRomSUb0">pic.twitter.com/HCgRomSUb0</a></div>
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— nchomycia (@chomycia) <a href="https://twitter.com/chomycia/status/1138908561919152128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Lam, Linda. "Fire Rainbow Appears in Kentucky Sky." The Weather Channel. May 8, 2018. Accessed June 12, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2018-05-08-fire-rainbow-circumhorizontal-arc-kentucky" style="text-align: center;">https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2018-05-08-fire-rainbow-circumhorizontal-arc-kentucky</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Samenow, Jason. "Colors 'purer' than those of the rainbow' painted skies near Washington Wednesday. Here's and explanation." The Washington Post. June 12, 2019. Accessed June 12, 2019. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/12/colors-purer-than-those-rainbow-painted-skies-near-washington-wednesday-heres-an-explanation/?utm_term=.390ed2306f4c" style="text-align: center;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/12/colors-purer-than-those-rainbow-painted-skies-near-washington-wednesday-heres-an-explanation/?utm_term=.390ed2306f4c</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] Erdman, Jonathan. "The Science Behind the Odd Rainbow Stripes Everyone Saw in Western Wisconsin." The Weather Channel. June 8, 2015. Accessed June 12, 2019. <a href="https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/circumhorizontal-arcs-wisconsin" style="text-align: center;">https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/circumhorizontal-arcs-wisconsin</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] Williams, Ashley. "Beachgoer captures rare, colorful phenomenon decorating the afternoon sky." AccuWeather. May 27, 2019. Accessed June 12, 2019. <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/beachgoer-captures-rare-colorful-phenomenon-decorating-the-afternoon-sky/70008372" style="text-align: center;">https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/beachgoer-captures-rare-colorful-phenomenon-decorating-the-afternoon-sky/70008372</a>.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-19282915166635114242019-06-01T06:50:00.001-07:002019-06-19T06:47:52.381-07:00Climate Crisis, Breakdown, Emergency: All Nonsense and A Climate Madhouse!<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | June 1, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's been nearly three weeks since <i><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/">The Guardian</a></i>, a news organization, published <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/17/why-the-guardian-is-changing-the-language-it-uses-about-the-environment">an article</a> detailing their overhaul of environmental stories and the "language" used in them. In their articles on climate change, they are 'advancing' their climate change terminology. Instead of "climate change" and "global warming," the company is now going to use "climate crisis" and "global heating" (Figure 1).</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGJxMq8YFgyS74kue-OELLXDLUccvq0Z5wl95B89FRT9VKgc6qjb2d7p-7WnmQFKfMej6zxXGKSJCD-1j7e9OAT7sKAnI2D64uUPCERhOu2tZYmpSsap8jX5nr5INotrz-f5cFkDvYTtg/s1600/Guardian.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="787" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGJxMq8YFgyS74kue-OELLXDLUccvq0Z5wl95B89FRT9VKgc6qjb2d7p-7WnmQFKfMej6zxXGKSJCD-1j7e9OAT7sKAnI2D64uUPCERhOu2tZYmpSsap8jX5nr5INotrz-f5cFkDvYTtg/s400/Guardian.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. Why the Guardian is changing the language it used about the environment.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">According to Damian Carrington, the author of the piece, <i>The Guardian </i>has updated it's style guide with terms that <i>"more accurately describe environmental crises facing the world. Instead of 'climate change' the preferred terms are 'climate emergency, crisis or breakdown' and 'global heating' is favoured over 'global warming', although the original terms are not banned." </i>The editor-in-chief, Katharine Viner stated that she wants the articles published to be more "scientifically precise."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I don't know about you, but I'm pretty sure no serious scientist (hence the word serious) is calling climate change a crisis, breakdown, or emergency. It should also be noted that all three of those terms don't really sound very scientific to me; they sound more like something from a pre-schooler. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">According to the May 17th article, these changes in terminology are in light of the notion that carbon emissions need to be cut by 2030 in order to avoid the dangers of droughts, flooding, and extreme heat, not to mention accelerating the extinction of animal species.<i><span style="color: red;"> (I'm not a biologist here, (I'm actually an aspiring meteorologist) but I think the only thing that's becoming extinct is common sense and brain usage.)</span></i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>The Guardian</i>'s new vocabulary was also inspired by Greta Thunberg, a Swedish teenager who has invoked controversy, as she has caused who 'knows how many' students to skip school and protest against climate change. In a statement this past May, Thunberg said <i>"It's 2019. Can we all now call it what it is: climate breakdown, climate crisis, climate emergency, ecological breakdown, ecological crisis, and ecological emergency?"</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">No, Greta, we aren't going to call it a climate crisis because there is simply no evidence to suggest that there is one. As meteorologist Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while, climate (weather) related deaths have been plummeting for nearly 100 years, while life expectancy has gone up (of which <i>both </i>are due to <i>various reasons</i>, including the less extreme weather we've seen since the Dust Bowl era).</span><br />
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Dear <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@realDonaldTrump</a> when someone gets in your face about the climate catastrophe, show these 2 charts, Climate related deaths have plummetted in the fossil fuel era, personal GDP, people alive and life expectancy has skyrocketed. This is opposite of climate catastrophe missive <a href="https://t.co/Nv6EUwyUv7">pic.twitter.com/Nv6EUwyUv7</a></div>
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) <a href="https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1106912250152054784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 16, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Despite <i>The Guardian</i>'s 'powerful' use of language (sarcasm), this aspiring meteorologist is somehow still <i>not </i>convinced we're in impending climate doom!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Carrington, Damian. "Why the Guardian is changing the language it uses about the environment." May 17, 2019. Accessed June 1, 2019. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/17/why-the-guardian-is-changing-the-language-it-uses-about-the-environment">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/17/why-the-guardian-is-changing-the-language-it-uses-about-the-environment</a>.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-7881864901991862352019-05-30T04:41:00.000-07:002019-06-19T06:48:46.874-07:00Three Examples That Prove the Media and Politicians Have No Clue What They Are Doing in Climate Science<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | May 30, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Inconvenient Truths: Opinion by Chris Martz and Daniel Lai</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><b>Disclaimer:</b> Both of us appreciate the fact that the media exists to spread useful information around to people on a daily basis. However, when there is bias and poorly conducted journalism, it needs to be addressed seriously.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Introduction</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Time and time again, media outlets and our elected officials misrepresent various social, economic, and/or environmental issues in order to boost their ratings, gain political power, and/or create mayhem and hysteria among their viewers and constituents, respectively. The climate change debate is no exception, as the issue is constantly conveyed to the public eye as a 'crisis,'¹ (Figure 1) when in fact, good scientific analysis and data say otherwise. H.L. Mencken said it best; <i>"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule."</i>² If one can exercise power, then that person has the ability to control you through your actions.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3oobzWDPtvZGsRSdts1SBmvgDFbKNsOrRb_VdKfjc3al2je0iiGbLzT4G-H2iDGK0oIZZGxCP5QD4hiGlxOOCG1UnCiOXn_Zhg5aEAXeL28lCNL6ODFpKsEedGBG6JvQAxXSmWJCs9nI/s1600/Bernie+Sanders.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="757" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3oobzWDPtvZGsRSdts1SBmvgDFbKNsOrRb_VdKfjc3al2je0iiGbLzT4G-H2iDGK0oIZZGxCP5QD4hiGlxOOCG1UnCiOXn_Zhg5aEAXeL28lCNL6ODFpKsEedGBG6JvQAxXSmWJCs9nI/s400/Bernie+Sanders.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. Bernie Sanders says climate change is an 'existential crisis' - <i>CNN</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Agree to Disagree</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While many people have the perception that there <i>isn't </i>any common ground on climate change, this simply isn't true. <a href="http://judithcurry.com/">Dr. Judith Curry</a>, a climatologist <a href="http://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2018/06/dr-judith-currys-debates-climate-change.html">noted</a> that there are a few key things <i>most </i>'skeptics' and 'alarmists' agree on.³</span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Global average temperatures are warmer than they were 100 years ago.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Man-made fossil fuel combustion has contributed more or less to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and water vapor <i>should </i>cause <i>some </i>warming.</span></li>
</ol>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">However, there is widespread <i>disagreement </i>and differing opinions on these two things...</span></div>
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<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">How much warming we have seen is or isn't a result from man-made processes (including urbanization and land use) and what exactly causes the climate to change.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">How much more warming, if any we will see observe century (considering lower tropospheric temperatures have plateaued since the very strong El Niño of 1998) (Figure 2).⁴</span></li>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGgehxup6urlWobURBRlVN6K6i8vY_-ktdiN3S2DFtPTkyUrOC2PYGLSICLseXW-4nxfzAsOQAWTVbhLeuCcBj8MTWyY9HYse5jAoEgE3TVqYjo94vqMpvuTopLYzlvaCiD2WjJk9RPAE/s1600/UAH+with+trend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGgehxup6urlWobURBRlVN6K6i8vY_-ktdiN3S2DFtPTkyUrOC2PYGLSICLseXW-4nxfzAsOQAWTVbhLeuCcBj8MTWyY9HYse5jAoEgE3TVqYjo94vqMpvuTopLYzlvaCiD2WjJk9RPAE/s400/UAH+with+trend.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. UAH Version 6.0 Global Troposphere Temperature Anomalies, 1979-2019 - <i>Wood for Trees</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Disagreement is actually good for science because it opens the door to new ideas, debate, and research. Without debate, advances in science would simply not occur.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Name-Calling Tactics</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One of our biggest pet peeves in the entire climate change debate is the constant use of name-calling, and this name-calling primarily comes from those on who preach AGW. If you're skeptical of the 'climate crisis,' you're shunned and labeled as a 'climate [change] denier.' This use of name calling is not only unreasonable, but it also couldn't be further from the truth. Nobody I have ever met or talked to denies the fact climate change itself exists in natural form. Climate has been in a state of constant change for 4.5 billion years, and it will continue to do so in the future. Even those who have openly stated that global warming is the biggest scam and hoax ever, such as Donald Trump (Figure 3),⁵ don't really deny climate change - they're usually just referring to <i>anthropogenic </i>climate change.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLj1mI6EwOM5tOiCJv1Mpkssj46mbft6Uyt4JihopSbVWiX7FY5k7H0vGhgR9cvYKKP4TfaQNkd6qntEAgK6XCC9QhBbj6RfrglUBMD4ULJuDC-1tBUIXVK578D6L-mk_rp9O5M9BzP2w/s1600/Donald.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="198" data-original-width="598" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLj1mI6EwOM5tOiCJv1Mpkssj46mbft6Uyt4JihopSbVWiX7FY5k7H0vGhgR9cvYKKP4TfaQNkd6qntEAgK6XCC9QhBbj6RfrglUBMD4ULJuDC-1tBUIXVK578D6L-mk_rp9O5M9BzP2w/s400/Donald.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. Donald Trump calls global warming a hoax.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Misleading Information From the MSM and Politicians</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://motherjones.com/">Mother Jones</a></i>, a generally left-leaning news website apparently had nothing better to do with their website's bandwidth, than compile a <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/12/trump-climate-timeline/">list of every single one of President Trump's <i>Tweets </i>mentioning "global warming"</a> or "climate change," calling them "insane" (Figure 4).⁵</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOi2_Y2FgsJbC6ubQ2OLn5BkHGpOuScdbavACUavsF9ERaJvxCJu9T3LJN21BQjulGf5HkY3DY90hbl62nGcFbMpRDAOTR23sHhXXutguod1yhN0vp3A0iHwA3EkC-7GQOJysaiu2Y66g/s1600/MK.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="271" data-original-width="624" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOi2_Y2FgsJbC6ubQ2OLn5BkHGpOuScdbavACUavsF9ERaJvxCJu9T3LJN21BQjulGf5HkY3DY90hbl62nGcFbMpRDAOTR23sHhXXutguod1yhN0vp3A0iHwA3EkC-7GQOJysaiu2Y66g/s400/MK.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. Every Insane Thing Donald Trump Has Said About Global Warming - <i>Mother Jones</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In all fairness, <i>Mother Jones </i>should have also done an op-ed on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 'tornado rant' on <i>Instagram </i>last Thursday, May 23. What she said on her story made her "end of the world"⁶ claim believable... (just a joke, don't take me seriously).</span><br />
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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oHk8nn0nw18" width="560"></iframe>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><i>1</i></b></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>. AOC Has A Tornado Rant About Tornadoes</i></b><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Last week, Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez took to her <i>Instagram </i>story (Figure 5) stating that tornadoes are getting worse due to climate change; <i>"The climate crisis is real y'all... guess we're at casual tornadoes in growing regions of the country?"</i>⁷ ⁸</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhawDSHWkvH41DShLXGW5ZadmH0tu8esBhT9p1iMUZ6ln1i48yaiVojlInHkRXq5tIkYln-2pp4i_iXjq8HZncMhCTFZL5uwzWaMz23jfCycz8fzS932VXJdvtOZRSAwr_MVoSrEP5qHws/s1600/AOC.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="711" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhawDSHWkvH41DShLXGW5ZadmH0tu8esBhT9p1iMUZ6ln1i48yaiVojlInHkRXq5tIkYln-2pp4i_iXjq8HZncMhCTFZL5uwzWaMz23jfCycz8fzS932VXJdvtOZRSAwr_MVoSrEP5qHws/s400/AOC.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. AOC's <i>Instagram </i>tornado rant.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First and foremost, tornadoes are <i>not </i>casual. Most tornadoes are spawned from highly organized thunderstorms known as supercells, and as a matter of fact, most thunderstorms don't even produce them (see the tropics for instance).</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁹ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹⁰</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> As</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><a href="http://drroyspencer.com/" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Dr. Roy Spencer of <i>UAH</i></a><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">and <a href="https://www.cfact.org/2019/05/23/some-cold-hard-facts-on-tornado-activity/">Joe Bastardi</a> of </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://weatherbell.com/">Weather Bell Analytics</a> </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">have been </span><a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/roy-spencer-tornadoes-ohio-ocasio-cortez-sanders" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">saying</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> for years,¹⁰ ¹¹ o</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ne of the key components of tornado outbreaks are the 'clashing' of warm and cool air masses. When there is a lack of 'clashing' - as such has been the case in recent decades</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹²</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> (Figure 6) due to predominately warmer springs - tornado outbreaks and thus violent tornadoes (EF4-EF5) become more infrequent.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_oVGhJPk28wtwb3E5_Cokw1gime7W9di4eMCYlnVQ4CR1VPJ5m6k8o8XazZGjSRpAMmWTV_AB7EyCScXOIg9-QsMvKHYF_TUYMk62T_fnRE1PeHhxUygBbivL83l4k1_AtqK-9vzyW-M/s1600/NOAA.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="596" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_oVGhJPk28wtwb3E5_Cokw1gime7W9di4eMCYlnVQ4CR1VPJ5m6k8o8XazZGjSRpAMmWTV_AB7EyCScXOIg9-QsMvKHYF_TUYMk62T_fnRE1PeHhxUygBbivL83l4k1_AtqK-9vzyW-M/s400/NOAA.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 6. <i>NOAA</i> temperature anomaly composites, March-May 2008-2018.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Because of the lack of clashing, wind shear is inhibited, which would otherwise be vital for tornadogenesis.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹⁰ The end result of this setup is a decrease in violent tornadoes, which has indeed been observed over the past 69 years.¹³ In fact, last year was the first year on record with no violent tornadoes (Figure 7). This totally destroys AOC's theory.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimP0JzVtJnFirSsZRy159jZIouNpVh4rBcu081KYegZmNfA9rd2WVyTtyvsLizeF0ngIGKMdUlfMcosxm4Bi-nTQ-6M-bWLHYQWDKV-vPCNURGoomE6JJF3dhiuKs5oNfVmUNHHkKsilM/s1600/Violent+Tornadoes.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="745" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimP0JzVtJnFirSsZRy159jZIouNpVh4rBcu081KYegZmNfA9rd2WVyTtyvsLizeF0ngIGKMdUlfMcosxm4Bi-nTQ-6M-bWLHYQWDKV-vPCNURGoomE6JJF3dhiuKs5oNfVmUNHHkKsilM/s400/Violent+Tornadoes.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 7. Violent tornadoes in the United States since 1950 - <i>The Washington Post</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><i>2. The New York Times Ignores Weather History</i></b></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaFyMUw5oeWa2vs53cH1Bn2bp4QuppdG0roA6RLMnOkQ0W0IMhxyvWUsBWav_yxK4xH3fU7BNikT2HBnr3jaU0MUOuAiSFc2bzh62lAPUJ9Mx9TQ8HOk1XD6-i-Lauav22OXK7r-tMVzs/s1600/NYT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="317" data-original-width="756" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaFyMUw5oeWa2vs53cH1Bn2bp4QuppdG0roA6RLMnOkQ0W0IMhxyvWUsBWav_yxK4xH3fU7BNikT2HBnr3jaU0MUOuAiSFc2bzh62lAPUJ9Mx9TQ8HOk1XD6-i-Lauav22OXK7r-tMVzs/s400/NYT.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 8. It's Not Your Imagination. Summers Are Getting Hotter - <i>The New York Times</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Two summers ago, <i>The New York Times </i>stated¹⁴ (Figure 8) that extremely hot summers are becoming increasingly common, and that it's not our "imaginations." They say, <i>"Extraordinary hot summers - the kind that were virtually unheard-of in the 1950s - have become commonplace</i>. Had the authors of that piece done any actual research, then they would have known that summertime temperatures used to be much hotter in the U.S. prior to the 1980s. Raw <a href="https://realclimatescience.com/unhiding-the-decline-for-windows/"><i>NOAA </i>data</a>¹⁵ shows that the percent of days above 90, 95, and 100°F have been plummeting for over 100 years, and the 1920s, 1930s, and 1950s, without a doubt, had the worst summers on record in the U.S.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiYCgjW6jbyZZD_c3CmiKNxVRcVpAReYwgF7yFFPjLBd0y_Tg8J85EpJyKtBcJcJcjYYXL6bg6KwzoLsNVayPsFavAVl9wF3TYX9pHnKJsaPPnyweFJH5515upZLTHc9Veww5etUlUoug/s1600/NOAA+Data.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="663" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiYCgjW6jbyZZD_c3CmiKNxVRcVpAReYwgF7yFFPjLBd0y_Tg8J85EpJyKtBcJcJcjYYXL6bg6KwzoLsNVayPsFavAVl9wF3TYX9pHnKJsaPPnyweFJH5515upZLTHc9Veww5etUlUoug/s400/NOAA+Data.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 9. Percent of days at or above 90, 95, and 100°F at all <i>USHCN</i> stations, 1895-2018 - UNHIDING THE DECLINE</span></td></tr>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>3. The Des Moines Register and Elizabeth Warren Fail to Address Iowa Flooding Seriously</i></b></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></b></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCFhUD2SwbPRr6zerNjoG4yKlp6HqozJ-OpSvsfbCPz-L9lA6Tx5pyiUbcvErI7WwrgrABpWOLRXsaHkXiMc0qPoaUgNeWp4SekjnHxuwVsJK-Ip8EAPmkITh-PV8_sGwo6x4Z6svX4vs/s1600/Ewarren.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="1319" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCFhUD2SwbPRr6zerNjoG4yKlp6HqozJ-OpSvsfbCPz-L9lA6Tx5pyiUbcvErI7WwrgrABpWOLRXsaHkXiMc0qPoaUgNeWp4SekjnHxuwVsJK-Ip8EAPmkITh-PV8_sGwo6x4Z6svX4vs/s400/Ewarren.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 10. Farmers should be a part of the solution to climate change, Elizabeth Warren says in Iowa - <i>Des Moines Register</i>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a Democrat running for President in 2020, visited Iowa this past spring to address the flooding that was widespread across the state.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹⁶</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> She stated, </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"I'm very worried about seeing the floods again. Climate change is real, the problem is urgent and we are running out of time."</i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">¹⁶ </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The entire problem with her statement is that recent flooding in Iowa had nothing to do with climate change. In fact, it was 'just the weather.' </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">February, March, and April of this year were among the coldest on record across the western 2/3 of the U.S., especially the Northern Plains.¹⁷ Temperature departures from normal were a good three to six degrees below average in Iowa, which meant that the ground was frozen from both the winter and first half of spring.¹⁸ With the two large storm systems that rolled through the region in March and April dropping a nice, solid snowfall and rain, the combination of a frozen ground and melting snow meant that the water had nowhere to run off to, thus creating the flooding.¹⁸</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKjxkGYS-QGQvHI1qigQfiytR0mG-H3Y8-fQSDqzqgo3Y_jJ196kVAcCuuHVJBJVJSZDtutDsnSNo7a3cvbAs-3bvG68uemi8mMO-Ocq9u7NUcflK3lDXhsKhKpRvkxXcnLFfZegpc4Y/s1600/FMA19TDeptUS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="color: black;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="688" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKjxkGYS-QGQvHI1qigQfiytR0mG-H3Y8-fQSDqzqgo3Y_jJ196kVAcCuuHVJBJVJSZDtutDsnSNo7a3cvbAs-3bvG68uemi8mMO-Ocq9u7NUcflK3lDXhsKhKpRvkxXcnLFfZegpc4Y/s400/FMA19TDeptUS.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 11. Departure from normal temperature (F) (February-April) - High Plains Regional Climate Center.</span></td></tr>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Summary...</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In each scenario shown above, it is clearly evident that both journalists at media outlets and politicians alike have no clue what they are talking about when it comes to climate science, simply because they are too ignorant to look back at the past and look at statistical data that derails their train. And perhaps they purposefully don't look at the data in order to gain power and control over the American people.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">These politicians are trying to implement policies that would put intense regulations on fossil fuel companies and the American people. If they can implement these policies, then that's one more thing they can control. While I'm all for renewable energy (if it were to be sustainable and effective), fossil fuels are our 'way of life.' Without them, we'd suffer consequences far greater than has ever been known to man.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's important we educate the youth about the <i>non-mainstream </i>view of climate change, because our weather history and actual statistics are important for not only setting the record straight, but for our country's well being.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Sullivan, Kate. "Bernie Sanders says climate change is an 'existential crisis.'" CNN. February 25, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/25/politics/bernie-sanders-climate-change-existential-crisis/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/25/politics/bernie-sanders-climate-change-existential-crisis/index.html</a>.</span></div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Mencken, H.L. "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." BrainyQuote. Accessed May 30, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/h_l_mencken_143263">https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/h_l_mencken_143263</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] Steele, Jim. "Dr. Judith Curry and Dr. Patrick Moore demolish Michael Mann in climate debate!" A Walk on the Natural Side. June 12, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="http://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2018/06/dr-judith-currys-debates-climate-change.html">http://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2018/06/dr-judith-currys-debates-climate-change.html</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] "UAH Version 6.0 with Trendline." Wood for Trees. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/trend">http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/trend</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[5] Schulman, Jeremy. "Every Insane Thing Donald Trump Has Said About Global Warming." Mother Jones. December 12, 2018. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/12/trump-climate-timeline/">https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/12/trump-climate-timeline/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[6] </span><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px; text-indent: -22px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Shorts, TheDC. YouTube. January 22, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHk8nn0nw18.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[7] Fredericks, Bob. "Meteorologist takes Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to task about climate change message." The New York Post. May 24, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://nypost.com/2019/05/24/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-chided-by-dc-meteorologist-about-climate-change-message/">https://nypost.com/2019/05/24/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-chided-by-dc-meteorologist-about-climate-change-message/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[8] Bastasch, Michael. "'It's Just the Weather': Meteorologist Fact-Checks Ocasio-Cortez on Climate Change." The Daily Caller. May 23, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/23/ocasio-cortez-weather-fact-check/">https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/23/ocasio-cortez-weather-fact-check/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[9] "Thunderstorm Hazards - Tornadoes." National Weather Service - JetStream. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tornado">https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/tornado</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[10] Bastardi, Joe. "Some cold hard facts on tornado activity." CFACT. May 23, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.cfact.org/2019/05/23/some-cold-hard-facts-on-tornado-activity/">https://www.cfact.org/2019/05/23/some-cold-hard-facts-on-tornado-activity/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[11] Spencer, Roy. "Roy Spencer: Why so many tornadoes this year? It's not what AOC, Bernie Sanders (or maybe even you) think." FOX News. May 29, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/roy-spencer-tornadoes-ohio-ocasio-cortez-sanders">https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/roy-spencer-tornadoes-ohio-ocasio-cortez-sanders</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[12] ERSL : PSD : US Climate Division Maps. March to May 2008-2018. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=8&mon1=3&mon2=5&iy%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&irange1=2008&irange2=2018&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=8&mon1=3&mon2=5&iy%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&irange1=2008&irange2=2018&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[13] Livingston, Ian. "2018 will be the first year with no violent tornadoes in the United States." The Washington Post. December 26, 2018. May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/26/will-be-first-year-with-no-violent-tornadoes-united-states/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8eb032ca52a1">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/26/will-be-first-year-with-no-violent-tornadoes-united-states/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8eb032ca52a1</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[14] Popovich, Nadja and Pearce, Adam. "It's Not Your Imagination. Summers Are Getting Hotter." The New York Times. July 28, 2017. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[15] Heller, Tony. "UNHIDING THE DECLINE FOR WINDOWS." The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://realclimatescience.com/unhiding-the-decline-for-windows/">https://realclimatescience.com/unhiding-the-decline-for-windows/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[16] Norvell, Kim. "Farmers should be part of the solution to climate change, Elizabeth Warren says in Iowa." Des Moines Register. May 3, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/05/03/iowa-caucus-election-2020-elizabeth-warren-climate-change-farmers-flooding-missouri-river/1094532001/">https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/05/03/iowa-caucus-election-2020-elizabeth-warren-climate-change-farmers-flooding-missouri-river/1094532001/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[17] ACIS Climate Maps. High Plains Regional Climate Center. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps">https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[18] Hassan, Adeel. "Why Is There Flooding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Wisconsin?" The New York Times. May 18, 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/us/nebraska-flooding-facts.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/us/nebraska-flooding-facts.html</a>.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-86160255867272865732019-05-29T16:34:00.002-07:002019-06-19T06:49:22.212-07:00Can A Tornado Happen in Winter?<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | May 29, 2019</span><br />
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<a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i>"Can A Tornado Happen in Winter?" - Scott Martz</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>WeatherFact:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The short answer is yes. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While tornado season is generally late March through early June ¹ due to high atmospheric instability and clashing of cold, polar and maritime, warm air masses, tornadoes can occur almost anywhere in the United States at any point throughout the course of a year.¹ ² ³ ⁴</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEOQdyZsulWEPEjeYFfQHaQUecdTTc8IKNOu6cB4d9o93ytaUiEGa1Gze6LAw6pgK_ga9xKKYQmUTDu8LB2U7CkoM13P-ilKjbSy3bUKv4ZiXx7GlC-fBcRAI3VI4GuNdgsmOVTUUIOK4/s1600/Average-Number-of-Tornadoes-in-December-United-States-Map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1259" data-original-width="1600" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEOQdyZsulWEPEjeYFfQHaQUecdTTc8IKNOu6cB4d9o93ytaUiEGa1Gze6LAw6pgK_ga9xKKYQmUTDu8LB2U7CkoM13P-ilKjbSy3bUKv4ZiXx7GlC-fBcRAI3VI4GuNdgsmOVTUUIOK4/s400/Average-Number-of-Tornadoes-in-December-United-States-Map.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Average number of tornadoes in December - NOAA.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi7lQ5bGpjkzvC5tznH78eMmKBZVLx24y4jWHc4nNcQEcCaxiplxp6cnC3-MgH0annxosd94LW7O9ff4YUeeqkKcWAbWckOIAvpBQ7MGX6-LV9ATG8MGhXOkp8rdIkJROkVOq-pK4tO0c/s1600/Average-Number-of-Tornadoes-in-January-United-States-Map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1259" data-original-width="1600" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi7lQ5bGpjkzvC5tznH78eMmKBZVLx24y4jWHc4nNcQEcCaxiplxp6cnC3-MgH0annxosd94LW7O9ff4YUeeqkKcWAbWckOIAvpBQ7MGX6-LV9ATG8MGhXOkp8rdIkJROkVOq-pK4tO0c/s400/Average-Number-of-Tornadoes-in-January-United-States-Map.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Average number of tornadoes in January - NOAA.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh76GOSQsukCw7W1T0VkipCrHA463PkHZTSQ7DToAyVPNbCTQhAu579n5gh-F38XBNYK420ab2e-ylQU-0La4qfwaADIe7tg9bvxrLD-O3bkWYEBKU9mdS4uvt21DGKaT0Ff9V5hxnqM0/s1600/Average-Number-of-Tornadoes-in-February-United-States-Map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1259" data-original-width="1600" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh76GOSQsukCw7W1T0VkipCrHA463PkHZTSQ7DToAyVPNbCTQhAu579n5gh-F38XBNYK420ab2e-ylQU-0La4qfwaADIe7tg9bvxrLD-O3bkWYEBKU9mdS4uvt21DGKaT0Ff9V5hxnqM0/s400/Average-Number-of-Tornadoes-in-February-United-States-Map.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Average number of tornadoes in February - NOAA.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Areas that are statistically the most likely to see winter tornadoes (December-February) are the Gulf states; Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Southeastern Texas, not to mention Georgia and Arkansas (not directly on the Gulf).¹ ² ³ </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁴</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Winter twisters typically occur when cold air retreats allowing warm, moist air from the Gulf to surge northward into the southeast meeting the jet stream.³</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Skilling, Tom. "Is it possible for a tornado to form during the winter?" WGN 9 News. November 27, 2018. Accessed May 29, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://wgntv.com/2018/11/27/is-it-possible-for-a-tornado-to-form-during-the-winter/">https://wgntv.com/2018/11/27/is-it-possible-for-a-tornado-to-form-during-the-winter/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Skilling, Tom. "Can tornadoes occur any time of year?" WGN 9 News. April 12, 2019. Accessed May 29, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://wgntv.com/2019/04/12/can-tornadoes-occur-any-time-of-year/">https://wgntv.com/2019/04/12/can-tornadoes-occur-any-time-of-year/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[3] Belles, Jonathan. "Your Average Tornado Risk By Month." The Weather Channel. April 18, 2017. Accessed May 29, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/tornado-risk-by-month">https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/tornado-risk-by-month</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[4] "U.S. Tornado Climatology." NOAA NCEI. Accessed May 29, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology">https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology</a>.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-40967552206180943472019-05-29T15:57:00.000-07:002019-06-19T06:50:02.025-07:00Do Tornadoes Always Come From the Southwest?<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | May 29, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX" style="font-size: medium;">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i>"Do tornadoes always come from the southwest?" - Nancy Martz</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>WeatherFact:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Dear, Nancy,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This is an interesting question and believe it or not, it's one of the most frequently asked questions that meteorologists receive! This is one of only a handful of weather folklore beliefs that is actually backed up by science.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The majority of tornadoes do indeed generally travel in a southwest to northeast direction, however, they may spawn and move in any direction along a horizontal plane. Most tornadoes originate from supercell thunderstorms, which like most storm systems, move in a west to east or southwest to northeast direction in the Northern Hemisphere.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, then this begs the question why storms move west to east?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The reason for this is because the troposphere's maximum height varies from the poles toward the equator. Near the poles, the troposphere is approximately 4 miles high, whereas it's almost 12 miles high near the equator. This is because warmer things expand and cooler things contract. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This variation in the troposphere's altitude sets up a downward slope from the equator, poleward. As a pocket of air known as a 'parcel' slides down the slope, it moves from south to north and with the Earth's counterclockwise spin on it's axis, the Coriolis force pushes that parcel eastward thereby creating the southwest to northeast flow.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[1] Edwards, Roger. "The Basics About Tornadoes." The Online Tornado FAQ. Accessed May 29, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/">https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[2] Jimenez, Jesus. "Why Do Tornadoes Always Seem to Travel Southwest to Northeast? Curious Texas Investigates." Dallas News. January 14, 2019. Accessed May 29, 2019. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/life/curious-texas/2019/01/14/tornadoes-always-seem-travel-southwest-northeast-curious-texas-investigates">https://www.dallasnews.com/life/curious-texas/2019/01/14/tornadoes-always-seem-travel-southwest-northeast-curious-texas-investigates</a>. </span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-79301620370829970212019-05-19T16:59:00.000-07:002019-06-19T06:50:41.596-07:00Fact Checking Hurricane Claims in the "Sustain Ability" Instagram Video<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | May 19, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a class="twitter-follow-button" data-size="large" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX">Follow @ChrisMartzWX</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Over the past couple of weeks, there has been a growing number of fellow classmates posting controversial things on their </span><i style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Instagram </i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">stories, most of which surround abortion and climate change. I believe everyone's opinion should be heard, and they are entitled to express them under their First Amendment right. I have no problem with anyone posting opinionated things on their stories, however, when those posts lack facts is when I have a problem.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Personal Statement:</b></span><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As many already know, I tend to lean conservative on many issues; I try to take a rational approach to things. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I come from a scientific background, as I aspire to become a broadcast meteorologist. Because of my scientific background, most of my opinions on social, economic, and environmental issues are based on historical facts, statistics, and data. </span></i><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>While my stance on catastrophic man-made global warming remains skeptical, and along the lines of what conservatives tend to think, my stance is solely based on scientific analysis and statistics. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>I think conservatives tend to have an overall better grasp of what to do in response to "climate change," as they don't want to invoke policies and regulations that would inhibit economic growth, whereas liberals want to enact policies that have intense regulations. To the contrary, both liberals and conservatives tend to have a poor understanding of how climate change itself works and often misrepresent claims when communicating to the public. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>When listening to climate scientists, liberal politicans will often look to people like Dr. Katherine Hayhoe or Dr. Michael Mann who portray climate change as being a problem if carbon dioxide emissions aren't regulated by policies. In turn, those politicans falsify claims made by the climatologists and portray climate change as being this massive crisis and extinction event where laws need to be passed that control everyone and everything. On the flip side, conservatives will generally follow scientists like Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. Judith Curry, who like me, believe that climate change is mostly natural. In turn, those conservative politicans end up claiming that climate change is a hoax and is not real, which is also wrong and misleading, just in the opposite way.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>With policies that liberals are perpetuating, it is coming across as if they are trying to gain political power and control over the people by using weather and climate (which I have a passion for) to justify the end result. It's deeply disturbing to me that the science has been so politicized. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>I love forecasting the weather because I love nature, God's creation, and the fact that weather is something that's changing all the time. In terms of climate, I believe the same thing - based on research - that climate changes due to various reasons (ocean cycles, volcanism, the sun, and yes, to an extent, man-made influences) and that you can't exactly pinpoint a man-made cause because it gets lost in the hands of natural variability.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>I'm not here to criticize anyone about their stance on climate change, but because I have conversed with numerous scientists on this issue, and because I am going to college to study atmospheric science, I hope I will be able to open your eyes to the </i><i style="font-weight: bold;">non-mainstream </i><i>view.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Out of all of the videos that I have seen that have been shared on <i>Instagram </i>stories, the one called "Sustain Ability" is perhaps the most misleading one, so let's dive into it...</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I happened to find the video on <i>YouTube</i>,¹ so please take three minutes to watch the video.</span> </b><br />
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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rs4zj0ttRqU" width="560"></iframe><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Now that you have (hopefully) watched the clip, let's take a look at the narrator's claims about hurricanes and see if they make any sense.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Most of the video emphasizes pollution, which I agree is a major problem, but it's not causing climate change.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Between the 10 and 12 second mark, the narrator tells us that Hurricane Harvey, which devastated Texas nearly two years ago, was the "biggest hurricane ever recorded." Taking that statement literally, to say that Harvey was the largest hurricane ever is unmistakably a lie. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In fact, if the narrator had done any research, he would have known that Harvey was only 280 miles (450.6 km) in diameter,² ³ which is not at all large for a hurricane. T</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">he largest hurricane ever recorded was Typhoon Tip in 1979 with a diameter of 1,380 miles (2,220.9 km) (Figure 1). Now compare that to Harvey in 2017 (boxed in red).</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhudKNcg4DTWiDzZuYFIzsV98XrDMqHNJFcW8y9RkL_KYKM8J3vUzrveW-uyRM60bTB2jqmrRunw2jdSYSFWb4bnzEbEkfu0n1jflOejwllQ2EEy9TSQQqQX61P24hbG5Hbs60QDD7jZxo/s1600/Hurricane.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="649" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhudKNcg4DTWiDzZuYFIzsV98XrDMqHNJFcW8y9RkL_KYKM8J3vUzrveW-uyRM60bTB2jqmrRunw2jdSYSFWb4bnzEbEkfu0n1jflOejwllQ2EEy9TSQQqQX61P24hbG5Hbs60QDD7jZxo/s400/Hurricane.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 1. Hurricane size comparison.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Between the 12 to 15 second marks, the graphic states that Hurricane Irma was a Category 5 storm. This too is false. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">According to <i>NOAA</i>'s <i>National Weather Service </i>(Figure 2), Hurricane Irma, while devastating, was a Category 3 at landfall, not a Category 5 like it says in the video.⁴</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLiLOahhDrGEn_Wh9rXqRWRdpQrwgUuUIKl1lAO1tC9G_KEvdL8bT1BeIOCQ9mg0RMVxnNI8tlh0Dwe6GFdqcoaAtbWKQ9RRzZ25PM4S1eytokGZ-afdxX8nH6U5IJGyGxuoLhKljL9uY/s1600/Irma.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="960" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLiLOahhDrGEn_Wh9rXqRWRdpQrwgUuUIKl1lAO1tC9G_KEvdL8bT1BeIOCQ9mg0RMVxnNI8tlh0Dwe6GFdqcoaAtbWKQ9RRzZ25PM4S1eytokGZ-afdxX8nH6U5IJGyGxuoLhKljL9uY/s640/Irma.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 2. Hurricane Irma synopsis. - NOAA.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hurricane seasons of the present are nothing compared to what they were in the past. Officially, by wind speed, the worst hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was the Category 5 "Labor Day Hurricane" in 1935 with a wind speed of 185 miles per hour at landfall when it struck the Florida Keys (Figure 3).⁵ By barometric pressure, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 also ranks first place because it's central pressure was 892 millibars or 26.35 inches of mercury at landfall.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwUMqBthe6_ORW5-ofWzLbUBgZYIVj2s8p5Ea8tMfJEoM0U9wqWvmQfvTwUb64eQ2K2C0KSnuXh2426NtJgacfqgKs8-QSNaL7Nzm9Ha3zh52_ojX2qc0w1nk48CEwgl71OLfcUPl9ovM/s1600/labor+day.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="888" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwUMqBthe6_ORW5-ofWzLbUBgZYIVj2s8p5Ea8tMfJEoM0U9wqWvmQfvTwUb64eQ2K2C0KSnuXh2426NtJgacfqgKs8-QSNaL7Nzm9Ha3zh52_ojX2qc0w1nk48CEwgl71OLfcUPl9ovM/s400/labor+day.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 3. Surface map depicting the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The worst landfalling hurricane by fatalities in the United States was the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which claimed the lives of around 8,000 people.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵ The Galveston Hurricane was a Category 4 at landfall.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">⁵</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 4. Surface map of the Galveston Hurricane.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On September 21, 1938, New England was ravaged by a Category 3 hurricane. It ranked among one of the most destructive on record with a death toll of anywhere from 400 to 800, with 50 foot waves in Massachusetts and a peak storm surge of 17 feet in Rhode Island (Figure 4), not to mention producing massive flooding in Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.⁶ ⁷</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Figure 5. Storm surge from the 1938 hurricane.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Because of the amount of infrastructure we've built along the coast in the last 50 years, it's easy for one to have the perception that hurricanes are becoming worse. In terms of money and damage, they are only because there is </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">more "stuff" for mother nature to destroy, but as usual, people on the man-made global warming side of the argument blame it all on your SUV.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist at <i><a href="http://weatherbell.com/">WeatherBELL Analytics</a></i>, has done some good research on hurricanes and climate change, and has come up with an incredible theory as to why we have seen a decrease in landfalls (Figure 6) over the years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Bastardi basically stated⁷ that tropical cyclones are nature's way of balancing heat around the globe, part of a process known as the atmosphere-energy balance. Hurricanes and for that matter, all tropical cyclones remove heat from the tropics by carrying it to temperate (mid-latitude) climates. Because most of the warming relative to 30-year averages has occurred in polar regions, mainly the Arctic (through a process known as Arctic Amplification), the warmer temperatures in the northern climates would produce a weaker temperature gradient (temperature change with distance), thus the need for heat distribution by tropical cyclones and thus hurricanes is reduced.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This is one of the main reasons for why we have seen less hurricanes in recent decades, rather than more as per what the "Sustain Ability" video claims.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's very important that people, including my classmates, question what others are telling them. You shouldn't believe everything you hear, especially if it's from some random guy on Instagram who doesn't have a solid background in what they are talking about. It's also important we stand up for what we believe in rather than just sitting back and saying nothing at all.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If anyone has any questions, I'd be more than happy to answer them, clarify points, or hear your view on the issue. Let the data speak for itself, like I did above. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>REFERENCES</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Important Notice! All of these citations will be put into Chicago-style format sometime tomorrow. I've been very busy and had barely enough time to write this piece. Check back tomorrow for full citations. All links should be working. :-)</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs4zj0ttRqU"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs4zj0ttRqU</span></a><br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoxKH_v8b-8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoxKH_v8b-8</a></span><br />
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<a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-tip-earths-strongest-storm/87362"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-tip-earths-strongest-storm/87362</span></a><br />
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<a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/Irma_technical_summary"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">https://www.weather.gov/tae/Irma_technical_summary</span></a><br />
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<a href="http://weather101.net/what-is-the-worst-hurricane-to-have-ever-hit-the-us/"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">http://weather101.net/what-is-the-worst-hurricane-to-have-ever-hit-the-us/</span></a><br />
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<a href="http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/great-1938-hurricane/"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/great-1938-hurricane/</span></a><br />
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<a href="https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome</span></a><br />
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<a href="https://patriotpost.us/opinion/58822-challenging-global-warming-attribution-to-hurricanes"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">https://patriotpost.us/opinion/58822-challenging-global-warming-attribution-to-hurricanes</span></a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-78094457350673063202019-05-16T18:03:00.002-07:002019-06-19T06:51:24.949-07:00D.C. To Have First 90 Degree Day This Weekend<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By Chris Martz | May 16, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">While April 2019 sure had it's fair share of 80 degree days in our nation's capitol, not to mention ranking among the warmest on record, the mercury did not climb to 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F once </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">during the course of the month. The highest temperature achieved last month was 84°F which was recorded at DCA on April 8th. To the contrary, the low temperature last month was 34</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F on April Fools Day (April 1st).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So far in the month of May, Washington, D.C. has recorded three nonconsecutive 80</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">° days; 87</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F on the 2nd, 81</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F on the 7th, and 82</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F on the 10th. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As a ridge of high pressure builds in over the eastern half of the U.S. late week, we are expecting temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s, before some real heat builds in this weekend. </span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjerAsTkSMzuuK0bSsgoKas0wxVrphd2kn-Y55UebSBZ9k9054t2vCJ30x8T3MxaM87-r_wzcZvgP32U9g2qgxJ4QCZto26RrXdxKawe0cKPClIEMGjPw9QyKZH1-mYCVzVwAqHlm6iROU/s1600/GFS+heat.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1024" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjerAsTkSMzuuK0bSsgoKas0wxVrphd2kn-Y55UebSBZ9k9054t2vCJ30x8T3MxaM87-r_wzcZvgP32U9g2qgxJ4QCZto26RrXdxKawe0cKPClIEMGjPw9QyKZH1-mYCVzVwAqHlm6iROU/s400/GFS+heat.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Map via <a href="http://tropicaltidbits.com/">Tropical Tidbits</a>.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On my 7-day forecast, Sunday is forecast to be our first 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">° day in D.C. Whether we actually reach 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°F or not come Sunday afternoon is unknown, but some models are very aggressive with the maximum temperature that afternoon.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOiv63ezrktBpieSMPNisimlxenfp4IBqGkDnsrtWVy9kPaa3FgQZjjJ3R1ReL3z1q55Jil2nNn_QNOgZ5fUtTOvHY9QJiXBI5DGd5n0WlnzY90jlv3pJHwT_-mSnzHFTj084N3GmPrSM/s1600/7-Day+Forecast.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="960" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOiv63ezrktBpieSMPNisimlxenfp4IBqGkDnsrtWVy9kPaa3FgQZjjJ3R1ReL3z1q55Jil2nNn_QNOgZ5fUtTOvHY9QJiXBI5DGd5n0WlnzY90jlv3pJHwT_-mSnzHFTj084N3GmPrSM/s400/7-Day+Forecast.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A month or so ago, I decided to do a little research, and I plotted a graph of the first 80</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, and 100</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">° days of the year by day number in Washington, D.C. As you can see by the graph below, the earliest 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°+ days have come earlier by about nine days - and you could argue that's due to various different reasons. The 30-year average (1981-2010) date for the first 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">°</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> day is May 17th; the 1881-1910 average was May 26th.</span></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="400.5" scrolling="no" seamless="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQx61TlHv7Oq0QnY7SfbcSHgZKywyywgXfueO60aMhs130l1JdjzQZxx-P6dUyCC0QkfekdYdiyBsOb/pubchart?oid=45158196&format=interactive" width="603"></iframe>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For a bonus, the earliest 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">° day in D.C. occurred on March 22, 1907 and the latest first 90</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">° day occurred on July 12, 1979.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>All historical climate data presented in this blog can be accessed from <a href="http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/">xmACIS2</a>.</b></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8683579228181000137.post-36832962178059109522019-05-04T07:47:00.002-07:002019-05-04T07:47:12.596-07:00Welcome to WeatherFacts!<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">WeatherFacts </i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">is a brand new weather website that was launched by </span><a href="https://awesomeweatherfacts.blogspot.com/p/about.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="">Chris Martz</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> on May 3, 2019. The main purpose of this blog is to provide a good understanding of our atmosphere and weather processes and how they develop and impact us here at the surface.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The section <i><a href="https://awesomeweatherfacts.blogspot.com/p/meteorological-madness.html">Meteorological Madness!</a> </i>deals with meteorology topics like the atmosphere and it's composition, layers, and properties, as well as the Earth-atmosphere energy balance, the oceans, seasons, the jet stream, wind, fronts, clouds and precipitation, extreme weather, and synoptic meteorology. </span></div>
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<i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Climate 101 </i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">is focused on climate change. Unlike many climate websites, I express my views and give readers a perspective on the issue that they often don't hear in the mainstream - the skeptical side. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For those who are seeking weather forecasts, please visit my flagship site <i><a href="http://chrismartzweather.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">NoHype Weather</a></i>.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">PLEASE NOTE! </span>This post will continue to be updated until the education series is complete. Also, Climate 101 and Meteorological Madness! have not been started or completed yet, </b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>respectively</b></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, so please follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX" target="_blank">Twitter</a> where I will eventually post a link to the completed article. Thanks, Chris.</b></div>
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